差价合约是复杂的金融交易产品,可带来由杠杆作用而导致迅速亏损的高风险。大部分的零售投资者帐户在跟交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。您应当考虑您是否充分明白差价合约如何运作,以及您是否能承受您的资金损失的高风险。

比特币跌破6万美元,ETF 资金外流加剧利率压力

周二,由于对美国利率的担忧加剧以及现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的持续赎回,比特币跌破6万美元,使全球最大的加密货币逼近 2022 年以来的首次连续两个季度下跌。截至美国东部时间 18:00,比特币 (BTC/USD) 下跌 2.9% 至 58,628.70 美元,第二季度累计下跌 14.1%。

BTCUSD_2026-07-01_10-19-48

BTC/USD – 一个月走势图

市场概览

此次下跌使比特币价格接近 2026 年以来的最低水平,延续了此前因金融环境收紧、资金流入减少以及风险资产整体谨慎情绪而引发的抛售潮。

以太坊 (ETH/USD) 下跌 3% 至 1,571.41 美元,季度跌幅可能超过 25%。 XRP、BNB、Cardano 和 Solana 也出现下跌,而全球加密货币市值徘徊在 2.06 万亿美元附近。

ETF 资金流动和利率

据 Investing.com 援引SoSoValue的数据,现货比特币ETF周一录得2.311亿美元的资金流出,使得 6 月份的资金流出总额达到43亿美元。自 4 月底以来,资金流出总额接近 67 亿美元。

此次下跌的压力源于美联储6月份的鹰派会议,会议再次引发了人们对美国利率可能维持在高位或进一步上升的预期。更高的收益率往往会通过提升现金和债券的吸引力来对加密货币等无收益资产构成压力。

背景信息

比特币的下跌标志着此前由机构需求推动的涨势出现逆转,此前的涨势是由 2024 年美国现货比特币 ETF 推出后推动的。这些基金使得资产管理公司和散户投资者更容易获得比特币敞口,但当资金流动转为负值时,同样的渠道也会加速比特币的疲软。

企业持股的担忧也考验着市场信心。Strategy(前身为MicroStrategy)在6月份披露,该公司出售了32枚比特币,这是自2022年底以来的首次出售,尽管相对于其持有的比特币数量而言,这一数额仍然很小。

政策背景

监管仍然是另一个影响市场走向的关键因素。加密货币行业正在推动《CLARITY法案》的通过,该法案旨在为美国数字资产制定更广泛的监管规则,但由于政治纷争和银行业反对,进展缓慢。

公共公民组织(Public Citizen)表示,加密货币公司已花费约1.89亿美元试图影响2026年美国中期选举,超过了上一轮选举周期的支出水平。这笔支出凸显了数字资产政策已成为一个更大的市场和政治议题。

展望

交易员将关注ETF资金流出是否放缓,美国通胀和就业数据是否会强化加息预期,以及比特币能否在持续交易量的情况下重回6万美元。他们还将关注美伊外交以及华盛顿在加密货币立法方面的下一步举措。

关于作者

 

Martin Lam 是 ATFX 亚太区首席分析师,在全球外汇及投资市场拥有逾 20 年的经验。他毕业于迪肯大学(Deakin University),主修金融与经济学,并曾在多家领先的外汇经纪公司担任高级管理职位。

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