美元指数测试一个重要支撑位

美元重返看跌情绪,该指数测试了关键支撑位97.82。

USDX – Daily Chart
美元-日线图

当中东发生一些冲突时,美元指数未能回到100以上的水平。现在有可能出现进一步的疲软。

如果跌至97.82以下,可能会引发全球货币兑美元的反弹。美联储的鸽派言论进一步给美元带来了压力。

美联储官员最近的鸽派言论增加了7月降息的希望,最有可能的是9月,并增加了美元的压力。

美联储副主席鲍曼和投票委员沃勒都呼吁在7月降息。关税的通胀影响可能超过市场预期,这将使央行能够支持疲弱的劳动力市场。

美联储主席鲍威尔星期二在国会作证时说,尽管总统最近向他施加了大幅降息的压力,但降息“可以等一等”。

鲍威尔说:“今年关税的增加可能会推高价格,给经济活动带来压力。”

“对通胀的影响可能是短暂的——反映了价格水平的一次性变化。还有一种可能是,通胀效应反而会更加持久。”

他补充说,美联储“在考虑对我们的政策立场进行任何调整之前,有充分的条件等待更多关于经济可能走向的信息。”

如果不能很快降息,鲍威尔将继续承受压力,但美元并没有显示出美联储顽固的迹象。市场似乎正在消化中期降息的预期。

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