日本债券销售稳健,美元兑日元汇率下跌

美元兑日元汇率走低,此前市场对日本国债拍卖的强烈竞价缓和了市场情绪。

USDJPY – Day Chart

美元兑日元-日线图

美元兑日元2025年的高点在略高于159.00水平。修正目标将是151.00。

日本10年期国债的稳定拍卖平息了近期的恐慌,日本政府债券市场趋于稳定。投标成交比接近3.6,为去年9月以来的最高水平,与市场预售水平的差距很小。基准国债收益率升至1.86%,略低于17年高点。

自从日本央行行长植田和男去年12月提出加息计划以来,全球债券市场一直动荡不安。他表示,政策制定者将权衡此举的“利与弊”,但他的言论可能是为了给日圆近期的跌势降温。

日本国债收益率的上升令交易员担心,这个全球最大的债权国可能会放缓对外债的需求。拍卖结果也可能表明,日本投资者更倾向于远离本土。澳洲公债仍承压,而美国公债则走强。加密货币在近期大幅放缓后也出现反弹。

然而,日本债务负担带来的长期压力仍然存在,20年期国债收益率达到2.92%,为1998年以来的最高水平。

由于预期美联储本月将降息,美元失去了一些优势。最近的经济数据一直疲软,这可能为降低借贷成本开了绿灯,而这正是总统一直在推动的。

唐纳德·特朗普周二表示,他将在明年年初宣布接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席的人选。在此之前,由于投资者对美元的需求减弱,利率可能会下降。特朗普直言不讳地表达了他希望降低利率的愿望,并将选择最温和的政策制定者担任这一角色。

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