迎来繁忙的日历周,美元兑加元汇率备受关注

本周的经济日历应该会给美元兑加元的汇率带来一些波动。

USDCAD – Daily Chart

美元兑加元-日图

美元兑加元从8月初的高点开始走低。反弹的阻力位在1.3590,但仍有下行的可能。

美国将于周二晚些时候公布ISM制造业PMI数据。市场预期从46.8上升到47.8。低于该指数的读数仍处于收缩区间,突显出美国制造业的疲弱。

周三晚间将公布贸易数据和加拿大央行利率决定。经济学家预计加央行将再次降息。加拿大央行在7月份将基准利率下调至4.5%,行长麦克勒姆在新闻发布会上表示,如果通胀继续缓解,预计进一步降息是合理的。

在6月份通胀放缓后,经济学家普遍预计降息,也是加央行自2020年3月以来首次降息,也是连续第二次降息。

“如果通胀继续大体上与我们的预期一致,那么我们有理由预期政策利率将进一步下调,” 麦克勒姆表示。

加拿大经济一直比美国经济疲软,但随着美联储开始实施自己的货币宽松政策,交易员们开始抛售美元。

周四的数据将来自美国服务业采购经理人指数(PMI),预计该指数将升至51.5。服务业PMI占经济总量的90%,是一个重要数据。

一些分析人士认为,美联储在开始降息方面行动迟缓。

“我认为他们不想超出他们已经明确传达的内容,早在3月份,他们就建议三次降息,每次25个基点。我们还有三个会议要开。我认为我们仍然会看到三次降息,每次25个基点,从那时起,他们将采取非常缓慢的步伐,直到联邦基金目标利率回到3%,”Hennion & Walsh的Kevin Mahn表示。

周五将公布加拿大和美国的就业数据。随着这些数据的发布,美元兑加元将有一个清晰的走势路径。

由于两家央行都在降息,交易员将再次关注经济实力。周一是美国的劳动节,许多市场将关闭。

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周一,欧佩克+七个产油国同意将8月份的日产量目标提高18.8万桶,这是连续第五个月增产,令交易员重新关注供应过剩风险,与此同时,海湾地区的原油出口也在复苏。受此消息影响,油价小幅走低。 格林尼治标准时间01:21,美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货(CL)下跌0.5%,至每桶68.78美元。布伦特原油期货(LCO)下跌0.2%,至每桶71.96美元。

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美联储利率预期保持稳定,沃什力挺通胀目标

美联储主席凯文·沃什周三表示,美联储不会容忍通胀率高于2%的目标。他在葡萄牙举行的政策论坛上回击了降息压力。交易员们仍然认为,7月份美联储会议维持利率不变的可能性超过70%,而9月份会议是否会加息则仍难以预测。 走势详情

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