欧元兑美元等待美联储利率决定

由于市场在等待美联储的利率决定,欧元兑美元的反弹走势存在疑问。

EURUSD – Weekly Chart
欧元美元-周线图

欧元兑美元的反弹停滞在1.15,而1.12是关键支撑位。在这一水平上的失败可能会导致更深程度的调整。

欧元兑美元将成为本周剩余时间的焦点,因为香港时间下午5点的欧元区零售数据将紧随美联储在周四之前的最新利率举措之后。

尽管美国总统特朗普严厉批评美联储降低借贷成本,但美联储可能在周三维持其关键短期利率不变。

两周前,总统说他可以解雇美联储主席鲍威尔,导致金融市场大幅下跌,但他后来放弃了这一说法。他的财政部长斯科特·贝森特也支持美联储降息。

美国政策制定者辩称,通胀已稳步降温,不再需要高借贷成本来抑制此前的价格上涨。由于封锁后的压力导致通胀上升,美联储在2022年和2023年提高了短期利率。乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突加剧了供应链的动荡。

尽管这些压力正在消退,但在周二和周三的会议上,预计美联储将把关键利率维持在4.3%不变。鲍威尔和组成美联储利率制定委员会的18名官员中的许多人评论说,他们希望在采取任何行动之前看看特朗普的关税如何影响经济。

特朗普周五在社交媒体上发表进一步评论,称“没有通货膨胀”,并声称食品和鸡蛋的价格已经下降,燃料价格也有所下降。

纽约梅隆银行首席经济学家文森特·莱因哈特表示,美联储对2021年发生的事情感到“伤痕累累”,当时由于供应问题,价格上涨,美联储官员表示,价格上涨可能是“暂时的”。相反,通货膨胀率在2022年6月飙升至9.1%的峰值,特朗普新政府称美联储为“临时团队”。

“美联储将不得不等待证据,并在此基础上缓慢调整,” Reinhart称。

“你可以想象一个没有来自特朗普政府的压力,他们降息的世界……越快越好,因为他们认为这样做是因为数据的缘故。”他说。

交易者将密切关注鲍威尔的言论,欧元兑美元的走势将由该利率决议决定。强调谨慎降息可能会导致该货币对下跌。

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