特朗普最近对俄罗斯发表评论后,油价反弹

美国总统特朗普对乌克兰的支持导致卖空者逃离原油市场,并带来了另一个潜在的低点。

USOIL – Daily Chart

美国原油-每日图表

在多个支撑位从62.00美元左右反弹后,美国原油价格已走向测试66.00美元上方阻力位。这可能标志着原油价格处于中期低点。

油价近期触及七周高位,因强劲的库存数据和地缘政治风险上升增添了新的买盘动能,导致空头撤出。

此外,地缘政治紧张局势进一步支撑了原油价格,此前伊朗承诺不顾制裁风险继续向中国出售石油。更重要的是美国总统特朗普对乌克兰和俄罗斯冲突的立场。

特朗普警告欧洲停止从俄罗斯进口能源,否则将面临关税,这加剧了欧洲冬季前的供应担忧。

但特朗普也进一步推动了他对乌克兰的支持,称他们可以夺回失去给俄罗斯的领土,“甚至更多”。他的言论暗示乌克兰正在进入俄罗斯领土,他还表示,俄罗斯经济疲软表明他们是一只“纸老虎”。

他的言论让交易员意识到,冲突不会马上结束,有升级的可能。原油市场正在重新定位,以适应这一现实。

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由于鲍威尔中性基调削弱美元,欧元兑美元反弹

欧元兑美元周二攀升至1.16上方,受助于美联储主席鲍威尔的谨慎政策立场,以及法国政治紧张局势暂时缓和,此前法国政府暂停了备受争议的养老金改革。 鲍威尔在一个经济论坛上发表讲话,重申了“逐次会议”的利率决策方式,并表示劳动力市场的风险现在比通胀担忧更重要。虽然他指出,经济仍比预期强劲,但他承认就业方面的脆弱性日益增加,这增强了人们对进一步放松货币政策的预期。

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