尽管美联储降息50个基点,欧元兑美元汇率依然平静

美联储周三降息50个基点,但并未对欧元兑美元汇率造成波动。

EURUSD-–-Daily-Chart-1

欧元兑美元-日图

欧元兑美元在1.1140水平交投,在较大的阻碍1.1277之前有一些阻力。下行的支撑位在1.10和1.06,而1.0520是关键支撑位。

周三,美联储四年来首次降息。在设法冷却了猖獗的通货膨胀之后,美联储已经公布了其启动宽松政策的计划,但它一开始就大幅下调了50个基点。

通货膨胀率从2022年6月9.1%的峰值降至上个月的2.5%,几乎触及美联储2%的目标。为了减缓借贷和支出,央行官员在2022年和2023年11次上调基准利率,达到5.3%的20年高点。

此后,工资增长放缓,就业市场出现放缓迹象,消除了潜在的价格压力来源。石油和天然气价格也在下跌,消费者疲软迫使塔吉特和麦当劳等公司延长折扣。

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上个月在一次演讲中表示,“我们将尽一切努力支持强劲的劳动力市场。”他补充说,就业“进一步疲软”将是“不受欢迎的”。

由于交易员消化美联储降息的预期,欧元兑美元汇率一直在上升。这对货币现在可能会回到欧洲央行对美联储的宽松步伐。美国经济仍然比欧洲强劲,这可能是未来几个月的推动力。上周,欧洲央行今年第二次降息,其首席经济学家表示,他倾向于逐步下调利率。

菲利普•莱恩表示:“如果未来的数据与基线预测相符,逐步取消限制措施将是合适的。”“我们应该保留对调整速度的选择权。”

另一位欧洲央行政策制定者彼得•卡齐米尔希望在10月份关闭降息大门,他称,快速降息有风险,欧洲央行在采取行动前需要更多通胀数据。

卡齐米尔说:“我们几乎肯定需要等到12月才能看到更清晰的情况,然后再采取下一步行动。”

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