飓风“弗朗辛”抵消需求疲软,油价保持稳定

周二早盘,油价保持稳定,热带风暴“弗朗辛”造成的供应中断抵消了对中国需求下降的担忧。布伦特原油上涨0.22%,至每桶72.00美元,西德克萨斯中质原油上涨0.17%,至68.83美元。这两个基准指数在前一个交易日的涨幅都在1%左右。

当飓风“弗朗辛”横扫墨西哥湾时,美国海岸警卫队关闭了包括布朗斯维尔在内的德克萨斯州几个较小港口的作业。埃克森美孚公司停止了胡佛海上平台的生产,壳牌公司和雪佛龙公司也开始关闭多个地点。据澳新银行分析师称,美国国家飓风中心的数据显示,每天至少有12.5万桶石油产量面临风险。该中心预计,到周二,“弗朗辛”将增强为飓风。

尽管与风暴有关的供应问题,但对中国需求疲软的担忧继续令市场承压。大宗商品交易公司贡沃尔集团和托克集团的高管预计,油价可能徘徊在每桶60美元至70美元之间,原因是中国消费低迷,全球供应持续过剩。

高盛石油研究主管Daan Struyven表示,作为全球最大的原油进口国,中国的需求增长已大幅放缓,年增幅已从疫情前50万至60万桶的平均水平降至20万桶。低碳燃料政策和缓慢的经济复苏正在拖累消费。

亚洲各地的炼油利润率也降至2020年以来的最低季节性水平,进一步给原油需求前景蒙上了阴影。随着海湾地区的供应中断,交易员们正在权衡这些逆风因素将持续多久。

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周四,黄金价格飙升至每盎司4900美元以上的新高,延续了过去一年来令人瞩目的涨势,金价累计上涨超过70%。据主要市场数据来源显示,现货价格在最新一轮上涨中一度达到每盎司4920美元至4950美元的区间。 此次金价飙升主要归因于多种因素的共同作用,包括地缘政治紧张局势升级、市场对美联储降息的预期不断增强以及美元走软。随着实际收益率的下降,持有黄金的机会成本降低,而美元走软则使黄金对非美国投资者更具吸引力。

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