黄金失速脱轨后投资者恐慌

黄金自从3,431美元强劲反弹以来的卖盘非常有限,但本周情况发生了变化。

XAUUSD – Daily Chart (1)

现货黄金-日线图

金价升穿3,431美元是一个非常大的突破,但没有暂停或重新测试阻力位,这使得贵金属寻找近期底部。

金价周二一度下跌6%,创下2013年以来的最大跌幅。白银的卖家也出现了7%的跌幅,为2011年以来的最大跌幅。

分析师目前将这一走势视为技术性的“重置”,而非结构性崩溃的开始,但也突显出超买状况。月度RSIA指标达到了有史以来的最高水平。

盛宝银行大宗商品主管Ole Hansen表示,金价在九周内上涨了31%,白银在此期间上涨了45%,调整是不可避免的。

他表示:“排灯节前异常强劲的需求帮助支撑了价格,但随着美元走强、股市风险偏好情绪高涨,以及亚洲实物买盘走软,交易员开始保护利润,而不是追逐新高。”

Kitco Metals分析师Gary Wagner表示:“此次回调早该出现,不应让人感到意外。”“在如此长时间的上涨而没有实质性回调之后,迅速而严重的逆转是不可避免的。”

白银价格突破了我们本周注意到的2011年的关键高点——50美元左右,现在这将成为白银市场突破的障碍。不过,基本面的基本面依然强劲,各国央行每年的黄金购买量仍接近1,000吨的纪录高位。

世界黄金协会最近指出,通过官方渠道购买的黄金目前占全球总需求的近25%,在投机资金回流时提供了一个底部。

25%的水平表明反弹并未完全得到央行买盘的支撑,在市场寻求底部之际,投资者应该对波动保持谨慎。

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