基于选举的不确定性,黄金价格再创新高

黄金价格周三触及历史新高,受美国和日本政治不确定性加剧之际对避险资产的需求增加推动。

最初,金价本周开局疲弱,因以色列对伊朗的攻击没有预期那么激烈,暗示中东紧张局势可能有所缓和。

然而,即将于11月5日举行的2024年美国总统大选使避险投资的需求保持强劲。在执政的自民党领导的执政联盟在最近的选举中失去多数席位后,日本的政治不确定性也有所上升,进一步刺激了对避险资产的需求。

现货黄金价格上涨0.4%,至每盎司2,785.47美元,当日早些时候触及2,790.01美元的历史高点,而12月黄金期货价格上涨0.6%,至每盎司2,796.85美元。

随着美国总统大选的临近,唐纳德·特朗普和卡玛拉·哈里斯继续进行势均力敌的竞选,市场仍然紧张。最近的民意调查显示,特朗普略微领先,尽管分析人士认为结果过于接近,难以预测。

在日本,自民党最近的选举失利带来了更多的不确定性,因为它必须寻求与地区政党结盟才能有效执政,这可能削弱其影响力。在中东,紧张局势持续存在,伊朗誓言要对以色列最近的袭击进行报复,而以色列继续对哈马斯和真主党采取军事行动,这表明局势缓和的空间有限。

经济和利率数据,如美国第三季度GDP数据和非农就业数据,在塑造投资者人气方面发挥着重要作用。PCE物价指数是美联储偏爱的通胀指标。这些数据公布后,美联储下周将召开会议,预计将温和降息25个基点。美国较低的利率通常对黄金等非收益资产有利。

避险需求也支撑了其他贵金属,铂金期货下跌3.7%,至每盎司1,020.20美元,白银期货下跌1.5%,至每盎司33.94美元。在工业金属方面,伦敦金属交易所铜期货上涨0.1%,至每吨9,564.00美元,但10月份面临重大跌幅。

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