欧元兑美元反弹将受到美国就业数据的考验

在美国就业报告公布前,欧元兑美元汇率测试了1.0811的阻力位。

EURUSD – Daily Chart

欧元兑美元-日图

周五公布的6月份非农就业数据预计将显示新增19万个就业岗位,低于上月的27.2万个。然而,失业率预计将稳定在4%。

欧元区6月份的通胀率降至2.5%,但仍高于欧洲央行的目标。这一数字低于5月份的2.6%,这是一个积极的信号,因为通货膨胀率从10.6%下降,但欧洲央行不会急于再次降息。

欧洲央行行长拉加德本周早些时候在一次讲话中表示,欧洲央行需要确保通胀得到控制,然后才会考虑采取另一项政策举措。此前,欧央行在6月6日的会议上宣布降息25个基点。

拉加德表示:“我们需要时间来收集足够的数据,以确定高于目标的通胀风险已经过去。”欧元区经济增长的不确定性依然存在。然而,拉加德指出,就业市场的强劲和低失业率是保持耐心的理由。

与此同时,在美国,政策制定者仍不打算在利率问题上做出让步。

在拉加德出席的同一场活动上,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示,官员们希望看到年增长率更接近2%的目标。

他说:“我们只是想明白,我们看到的水平是对潜在通胀的真实解读。”

鲍威尔警告说,如果时机不对,可能会重新引发通货膨胀率。

鲍威尔说:“在这个关键时期保持货币政策的平衡,这是我在凌晨考虑的事情。”

美国也有传言称拜登总统将退出竞选,因为他最近在与挑战者唐纳德·特朗普的电视辩论中表现令人担忧。

这可能不会影响美元,因为他的继任者可能会继续他的政策立场和大量支出。

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