欧元兑英镑汇率面临英国就业数据和欧洲央行行长讲话指引

欧元兑英镑汇率将在周二迎来欧洲央行行长发表讲话以及英国就业数据。

EURGBP – Daily Chart (3)

欧元兑英镑-日走势图

欧元兑英镑已经突破了0.8737,这是今年以来的顽固阻力位。该货币对正逐渐接近平盘,这将是英国经济的心理损失。

英国就业市场数据将于香港时间下午2点发布,预计10月份申领失业救济人数将从25.8万人降至20.3万人。然而,预计全国失业率将升至4.9%。

英国雇主预计在未来12个月加薪3%,但一些招聘人员预计人工智能将减少可用的工作岗位数量。一项调查发现,六分之一的雇主希望人工智能工具能在未来12个月内帮助他们减少员工人数。

在利率方面,英国央行上周将利率维持在4%不变,但官员们表示,可能会在12月的下次会议上降息。英国就业数据公布后,欧洲央行行长拉加德将于香港时间下午3:20发表讲话。

分析人士将从她的讲话中寻找有关货币政策的线索,但最近的讲话可能暂时澄清了问题。在最近保持利率稳定之后,经济中仍然存在逆风。

拉加德说:“前瞻性工资指标显示,今年工资增长放缓。”她补充说,贸易不稳定,通胀比往常更不确定。

欧元/英镑的关键驱动因素之一是即将到来的英国财政大臣的预算。该计划将于11月26日宣布,可能会给企业和工人带来一些痛苦。政府必须在即将到来的预算中填补高达300亿美元的预算漏洞,这可能导致税收增加。

未能实现增长计划的预算可能会引发英镑走软,并使欧元兑英镑首次接近1.00。

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美联储主席凯文·沃什周三表示,美联储不会容忍通胀率高于2%的目标。他在葡萄牙举行的政策论坛上回击了降息压力。交易员们仍然认为,7月份美联储会议维持利率不变的可能性超过70%,而9月份会议是否会加息则仍难以预测。 走势详情

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