在近期数据指引后,欧元兑英镑寻求突破

欧元兑英镑汇率测试了强劲阻力,但最近的数据还不足以带动其突破年度高点。

EURGBP – Daily Chart (2)

欧元兑英镑-日图

欧元兑英镑在经历了8月以来的一些较高低点后,重新回到了年高点0.8737。这可能会导致欧元走高,如果它能突破这一关口的话。

英国经济周五公布了零售销售数据,市场预计会下降0.2%。这一数据更为强劲,为0.5%,对英镑有利。

英国财政大臣雷切尔•里夫斯将公布11月预算案,预计她将在预算案中提高税收或削减支出,以填补高达500亿美元的政府支出黑洞,这可能是英镑面临风险的一个令人担忧的迹象。

对经济来说,进一步的坏消息是,除了疫情封锁期间,英国在本财年上半年的借款达到了有记录以来的最高水平。

4月至9月期间的超额借贷超出了官方预测。本纳税年度的前六个月,政府借款总额为998亿英镑(1339.4亿美元),比去年同期增长13%,比国家预算监督机构的预测高出72亿英镑。

荷兰国际集团分析师表示,秋季预算可能对市场产生“地震”影响,但可能推低而非推高英国国债收益率。这可能是从“财政规则变更到可疑的紧缩承诺——这可能导致借贷成本飙升”。

英国10年期借款成本处于自2022年9月飙升以来的最高水平,前财政大臣利兹·特拉斯因此下台。“政府面临着一个选择。违背选举承诺,提高个人所得税、员工所得税或增值税。政治上具有挑战性,但微小的变化可以筹集到大笔可预测的资金。”

进一步的数据来自欧洲和德国10月份制造业和服务业PMI初值。德国制造业指数一如预期保持在49.5,服务业指数则从51升至54.5。

欧元没有受到欧元区数据的提振,欧元区数据符合市场预期,综合数据从51上升至52.2。正是英镑出人意料的强势再次阻止了该货币对的进一步上涨。英国制造业指数从46.6升至49.6,服务业指数略高,至51.1。

在周四的欧洲GDP数据之前,没有高水平的数据,但交易者可以关注这一关键水平。

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