油价从近期低点反弹,瞄准60美元目标

随着交易员减少看空欧佩克的押注,油价从近期低点反弹。

USOIL – Daily Chart (1)

美国原油-日图

美国原油价格触及56.00美元附近的低点,目前正朝着60.00美元的水平移动。日线图上有一些阻力位在61.50美元。

全球石油价格表明,市场正进入供过于求的时期,但对欧佩克产量的预测存在显著差异,可能会导致近期油价走低。

2月份交割的期货合约已开始以低于未来价格的价格进行交易,这被称为期货溢价结构。这突显出在当前环境下,市场对供需的中期看空态度。

国际能源署一直警告称,2025年和2026年将出现石油供应过剩,并指出世界各地,尤其是欧佩克+成员国的产量都在增加。在该组织的最新报告中,IEA预测2025年的盈余为每天235万桶,2026年为每天400万桶,几乎占全球需求的4%。

投资者没有那么快地消化预期中的供应过剩,部分原因是欧佩克分析师对供需的估计更为平衡。这是由于发达国家的库存处于相对较低的水平,而尽管美国的关税贸易战,需求却保持不变。

但这种情况在8月开始发生变化,根据IEA的数据,包括经合组织国家和中国的供应在内的全球库存触及四年高位,全年增加2.25亿桶。

就在市场被告知石油供应过剩之际,石油正寻求创下新低,而且存在一些风险,比如美国围绕委内瑞拉,这可能引发金价上涨。

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