大型银行业绩回归美国市场焦点

美国大型投资银行将于周五公布业绩,在最近一次降息之后,业绩表现变得更加重要。

JPM - Daily Chart

JPM -日线图

主要银行股票的日线图大多与上面的摩根大通图表相似。由于投资者对未来走势不确定,股价已从高点下跌,目前正处于盘整期。日元疲软的目标支撑位将在204-205美元附近。

摩根大通(NYSE:JPM)周五开启银行板块财报季,在强劲的就业数据加剧了对美联储未来降息路径的不确定性之后,投资者预计将关注净利息收入。

华尔街投资银行预计将公布第三季度利润下降,由于贷款需求依然低迷,利息收入预计将萎缩。在美联储将利率上调之后,该行业的净利息收入(NII)大幅增加,这是他们从贷款中赚取的收入与从客户存款中支付的收入之间的差额。

Argus Research分析师Stephen Biggar表示:“贷款增长疲弱,存款增加,以及失业率上升导致的贷款损失拨备增加——所有这些都将对利润率造成压力,并将适度压低NII。”

进一步降息可能会减少银行的利息支付收入,但可以用客户借款和企业交易的增长来平衡损失。

摩根士丹利分析师写道:“我们的经济学家预计,到2025年年中,美国将再降息150个基点,并预计美国经济将避免衰退,因此我们预计,焦点将迅速转向前瞻性前景。”

投资者将在周五看到摩根大通和富国银行的业绩,这将引导市场进入周末,下周其他银行也将公布最新业绩。

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