德国GDP增长数据将决定欧元的韧性

德国将于周五公布GDP增长数据,此前欧元因美元走软而本周大幅上涨。

EURUSD - Daily Chart

欧元兑美元 – 日线图

由于投资者抛售美元,欧元兑美元大幅上涨。即将公布的数据将决定此前的阻力位是否有效。

德国最新的增长数据将于下午4点公布,分析师预计第三季度将比持平的季度增长0.2%。同比数据预计也将增长0.3%。

《经济学人》的一篇标题为“德国经济如此糟糕,连香肠工厂都关门了”的文章指出,由于成本上升和支出停滞,企业举步维艰。

德国政府周五将2026年的经济增长预期下调至1%,并承认通过大规模公共支出刺激欧洲最大经济体的努力进展比预期缓慢。

这一预期低于10月份预测的1.3%的GDP增长,与此同时,德国总理弗里德里希·默茨因其在重振出口导向型经济方面力度不足而面临越来越多的批评。

尽管预计经济表现将比近年来有所改善(此前在经历了两年衰退后,2025年的产出疲软),但对于柏林官员而言,这仍然是一个令人失望的前景,他们原本希望经济能够强劲反弹。

“经济和财政政策措施带来的预期刺激效果并没有像我们预期的那样迅速或充分地显现出来,”德国经济部长卡特琳娜·赖歇表示。

德国经济受到制造业低迷、能源价格高企、中国等主要出口市场需求疲软、激烈的国际竞争以及特朗普的关税政策等多重打击。

默茨曾放宽德国严格的债务监管以推动经济刺激计划,但这些措施尚未对经济产生一些人所期望的效果。

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