英镑兑澳元的回调将受到经济数据的考验

周四的经济数据将考验近期英镑兑澳元汇率的回落。

GBPAUD – Daily Chart

英镑兑澳元—日图

英镑兑澳元最近飙升至2.0的水平然后被拒,在1.9600的阻力位反弹,但可能继续调整趋势。

香港时间周四上午9:30将公布澳大利亚就业数据。该国上个月增加了5.2万个就业岗位,分析师目前预计为2万个。

在过去的12个月里,失业率一直在攀升。2023年6月,这一比例为3.5%,但一年后,这一比例为4.1%。澳大利亚储备银行还预计,这一数字将继续上升,预计到今年年底将达到4.3%,到明年6月将达到4.4%。

澳大利亚统计局还将公布有关平均每周收入和海外入境和出境人数的新数据。自去年11月以来,澳大利亚央行一直保持其货币政策稳定。其认为,目前4.35%的现金利率已经足够限制通胀,同时保持就业增长。

香港时间下午2点,英国将公布最新的经济增长数据。

第二季度的初步数据预计将从0.3%跃升至0.9%。然而,年度数据预计将从1.4%降至0.8%。

周三公布的通胀数据有助于支持英国进一步降息的理由,月度通胀数据涨幅较小。分析师此前预计物价将从2%升至2.3%,这可能迫使英国央行暂停考虑降息。

然而,2.2%的数字低于预期,不会引起央行的恐慌。

经济学家预测,到明年年底,欧洲央行将每季度下调一次基准利率。通货膨胀率也升至2.6%,但经济学家预计今年还会有进一步的降息。

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