澳大利亚就业数据前瞻

澳大利亚市场将高度关注周四亚洲交易日早些时候由ABS发布的关键就业数据。最近公布的数据表明,澳大利亚就业市场仍然具有弹性,这削弱了许多家庭对澳大利亚央行未来几个月降息的希望。除了通胀指标,失业率也是澳大利亚央行的一个关键考虑因素,尽管3月份失业率上升至3.8%,仅比2月份上升0.1%,但许多评论人士认为,这一水平仍然太低,央行无法采取行动。

昨天公布的工资价格指数略低于预期,季度增长率为0.8%,而预期为0.9%,年工资增长率从4.2%下降到4.1%。再一次,尽管这被视为朝着正确的方向前进,但许多交易员认为,数据需要以更高的利率来影响央行。

4月份的就业数据预计将显示新增2.5万个就业岗位,失业率将再上升0.1%至3.9%,任何明显偏离这些预期的情况都将导致市场出现新的波动。

澳元兑美元在0.67附近交投,隔夜美国CPI数据发布后,澳元出现了良好的上行走势。到目前为止,澳元已经突破了日线图上的长期阻力趋势线,但今天就业数据的强劲结果可能会为澳元多头创造一场完美的风暴,并让它彻底突破,挑战自2023年12月以来从未见过的水平。趋势线支撑位目前位于66美分下方,这里也有大量的期权兴趣,但考虑到昨晚的美国数据,预计下跌将吸引买家,因为美元方面应该在未来几个交易日继续占据主导地位。

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