Last Updated: May 12, 2024
It was an interesting week for investors last week as stock markets continued to make ground in an environment where some are starting to see cracks in the road ahead. European stocks hit record highs and US markets continued to push up, although with more of a grind than a surge. Central bank updates now look to give FX markets the opportunity to see interest rate differentials kick in in the coming months as rate expectations differ across jurisdictions – last week’s examples of the BOE and RBA being strong cases in point. But overall, it was a relatively quiet week with a limited risk event calendar, especially from the US and rangebound conditions in many products.
This week looks to be more interesting; traders are preparing for more volatility with a busier calendar ahead, the highlight of which is undoubtedly the key US CPI data due out mid-week. Last month’s stronger than expected print threw the cat in amongst the pigeons as Fed rate cut expectations were pushed out resulting in stocks struggling for the next couple of weeks. Don’t discount the PPI data which is out on Tuesday, or any fresh update we get from the Fed Chair, but overall expect that key data announcement out on Wednesday to provide the direction for the week.
Here is our highlights table of scheduled risk events in the major economies:
Monday
| New Zealand | Inflation Expectations |
| Switzerland | SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan Speaks |
Tuesday
| UK | Claimant Count, Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate |
| US | PPI and Core PPI |
| Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks |
Wednesday
| Australia | Wage Price Index |
| US | CPI, Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Index |
Thursday
| Japan | Prelim GDP |
| Australia | Employment Change and Unemployment Rate |
| EU | ECB Financial Stability Report |
| US | Unemployment Claims, Building Permits and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
| Industrial Production |
Friday
| China | Industrial Production and Retail Sales |
May 10, 2024
Stock markets jumped on Wall Street yesterday as unemployment claims data in the US increased hopes of earlier rate cuts in the US. The Dow led the way again, notching up its 7th straight winning session in a row. US Treasury yields drifted lower as did the dollar which notably lost its earlier gains against the pound after the Bank of England had earlier held rates steady but had advised of pending cuts. Oil and Gold prices both pushed higher again in line with the overall dollar sentiment.
Traders are preparing for a busy day ahead as European markets return to the fray after yesterday’s holiday. Once again there is data due out of the UK as well as key Canadian employment numbers early in the US session.
| Market | Daily Change | Close |
| Dow | +0.85% | 39,387 |
| S&P | +0.51% | 5214 |
| Nasdaq | +0.27% | 16,346 |
| USD | +0.22% | 105.28 |
| US Treasury – 2 Year | -2.8 | 4.815% |
| US Treasury – 10 Year | -2.6 | 4.457% |
| Oil – Brent | +0.4% | $83.88 |
| Oil – WTI | +0.3% | $79.26 |
| Gold | +1.14% | $2,340 |
Today’s Events AEST:
European Session
- 00pm – UK GDP
US Session
- 30pm – Canadian Employment
- 00am – US Prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
- 00am – US Prelim University of Michigan Inflation Expectations Data
May 9, 2024
Global financial markets experienced the anticipated tepid day yesterday as a quiet Tuesday fed through to a bare event calendar Wednesday. US Stock markets did see a bit of movement with the Dow pushing higher for the 6th straight session and European Stocks hit a new record high, but in general most products remained rangebound as investors look ahead to next week’s key inflation data release.
Today’s market should prove to be a bit more lively, despite European holidays hitting liquidity midway through the sessions, as the Bank of England are due to update the market on their latest rate call and we have the weekly unemployment claims data in the US.
| Market | Change | Close |
| Dow | +0.44% | 39,056 |
| S&P | – | 5,187 |
| Nasdaq | +0.18% | 16,302 |
| USD | +0.13% | 105.55 |
| US Treasury – 2 Year | +1.3 | 4.841% |
| US Treasury – 10 Year | +3.1 | 4.492% |
| Oil – Brent | +0.5% | $83.58 |
| Oil – WTI | +0.8% | $78.99 |
| Gold | – | $2,312 |
Today’s Events (AEST):
European Session
- 9.00pm – Bank of England Official Bank Rate
- 9.30pm – Bank of England Press Conference
US Session
- 10.30pm – US Unemployment Claims Data Release
May 8, 2024
US Stock markets took a bit of a breather from their recent surge higher yesterday with the three major indices all closing close to flat as investors reassessed longer term prospects given the myriad of economic factors in play in the current market. Bond auction results for 3-year notes were solid if not spectacular with demand considered to be lower after the recent decline in yields, but the 10-year auction tomorrow and the 30-year on Thursday are likely to attract more interest. The dollar gained some recent lost ground with once again the standout move coming against the Yen, whereas Oil and Gold fell off as cease fire dialogue continues in the Middle East.
It’s another quiet calendar day today with traders looking for a bit of inspiration to push markets out of recent ranges. May Day holidays kick off in Europe today which may affect liquidity and risk appetite.
| Market | Daily Change | Close |
| Dow | +0.08% | 38,884 |
| S&P | +0.13% | 5,187 |
| Nasdaq | -0.10% | 16,332 |
| USD | +0.26% | 105.42 |
| US Treasury – 2 Year | +0.6 | 4.828% |
| US Treasury – 10 Year | -2.8 | 4.461% |
| Oil – Brent | -0.20% | $83.16 |
| Oil – WTI | -0.04% | $78.38 |
| Gold | -0.3% | 2,315 |
Today’s Events AEST:
European Session
| 4.00pm | German Industrial Production Data Release |
US Session
| FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks | |
| 3.01am | US 10-year Bond Auction |
| FOMC Member Cook Speaks |
May 7, 2024
US Stock markets continued to climb in trading yesterday as the major indexes notched up their third straight day of gains to record the strongest 3-days of trading since November. Confidence that the Fed will be cutting rates in months ahead has helped fuel the rally and Fed speakers again confirmed that view again during trading yesterday.
Reactions in other markets were more muted with US treasury yields trading close to Friday’s close and the dollar edging lower against most of the majors. Traders are carefully monitoring developments in the Middle East with Israel rejecting a claim from Hamas last night that they had agreed to a ceasefire.
Australian markets are in focus today for Asian markets with the RBA set to deliver its latest rate call and traders are expecting to see volatility around the event with recent sticky inflation data raising the potential for rate hikes in months ahead.
| Market | Daily Change | Close |
| Dow | +1.45% | 38,851 |
| S&P | +1.03% | 5,180 |
| Nasdaq | +1.19% | 16,347 |
| USD | -0.1% | 105.06 |
| US Treasury – 2 Year | +2 | 4.826% |
| US Treasury – 10 Year | -1.1 | 4.489% |
| Oil – Brent | +0.66% | $83.51 |
| Oil – WTI | +0.73% | $78.68 |
| Gold | +1.08% | $2,333 |
Today’s Events AEST:
Asian Session
| 2.30pm | Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision |
| 3.30pm | Reserve Bank of Australia Press Conference |
European Session
| 6.30pm | UK Construction PMI Data Release |
US Session
| 12.00am | Canadian Ivey PMI Data Release |
