差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美元和黃金前景仍難料,市場靜待美國7月多項PMI數據出爐

今晚,市場關注的美國7月ISM非製造業PMI數據即將出爐,由於早前公佈的美國製造業PMI數據表現不理想,市場擔心若7月ISM非製造業PMI數據也同樣表現不佳,服務業從疫情中反彈的局面會遭到逆轉,同時出爐的數據還有美國7月Markit服務業PMI終值和美國7月Markit綜合PMI終值。markit-pmi

由於就業方面備受挑戰、產能持續受限且訂單減少等因素影響,美國6 月ISM 非製造業指數報55.3,優於市場預期的54.3,雖然該指數仍穩居在50 的榮枯線之上,但已連三個月下滑,創下自2020 年5 月以來新低。市場普遍預計該數據7月為54,將進一步呈現下滑,或反映經濟前景不樂觀。

目前市場對於美國經濟衰退的擔憂日漸增加,美元指數已經連續多天下跌,當前在105附近徘徊,下行壓力仍然存在。隨著利率上行,美國國內生活成本不斷增加,對美國經濟正承受巨大挑戰,若多項經濟數據均呈現走低,恐怕會對美元前景進一步帶來負面影響。

美國早前已經公佈了7月ISM製造業指數為52.8,創2020年6月以來新低,較市場預期52為高。美國7月製造業PMI終值為52.2,略低於市場預期52.3,前值為52.3。數據顯示美國製造業開始呈現放緩,令市場擔憂整體經濟出現放緩,進一步拖累了近期美元發展。dollar index

值得注意的是,美國7月新訂單數量也呈現疲軟勢頭,已經連續第二個月下跌,對就業市場形成巨大壓力。數據顯示,7月新訂單指數為48,低於預期的49,前值為49.2;庫存指數不斷上升,從6月的56升至7月的57.3,為1984年以來最高水平,反映製造商不斷在增加庫存,以防止供應鏈中斷帶來的供貨短缺。

加上美國GDP已經連續2個季度呈現下跌,加劇市場對於美國經濟衰退的猜測。經濟數據的低迷也讓市場將重點放在了就業市場的表現,若就業市場亦較預期疲軟,有可能降低美聯儲9月大幅加息的可能性,令美元在近期持續承壓,從而利好金價和其他非美元的貨幣表現;反之,則會利好美元繼續強勢。

因此,本週五公佈的美國7月非農就業報告對於判斷當前經濟表現至關重要,尤其是在美國已經連續兩次大幅加息75個基點的背景之下,該數據也將進一步證實是否經濟放緩,投資者要密切留意其結果的公佈。此外,本周非農數據、一系列PMI數據的出爐也是為美元接下來的走勢,乃至美聯儲9月的加息決定提供最新的經濟數據指引。

從目前情況看,市場對於美國大幅加息的預期有所降溫,已經有市場人士押注加息的拐點將至,其預計9月或加息50個基點,並且美聯儲加息之後的腳步會逐漸放緩。這對於美元來說是利空的信號,卻可能為下半年黃金市場的多頭帶來更多機會。但是,仍要靜待上述提到的本週多項經濟數據公佈,在綜合判斷經濟形勢之後,美元和金價的走勢才會逐漸明朗。

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