差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

石油需求減弱,油價將何去何從?

由於全球經濟前景欠佳,油價週二走低。

最近OPEC+的減產對原油產生了顯著影響,但本週價格已經下降。

美國原油週圖

usoil weekly chart october

上週原油價格從每桶不到80美元上漲到接近95美元,這是一個重大的轉折點。此後,我們看到油價跌至88美元,但這可能只是暫時的。

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)將2023年全球GDP預期從此前的2.9%下調至2.7%,並警告稱“最糟糕的情況還在後頭”,這加劇了人們對經濟的擔憂。

對中國經濟的擔憂削弱了需求預期,對原油價格不利。中國官方媒體《人民日報》的一篇新文章也表示,中國的新冠肺炎零政策是“可持續的”,政府必須堅持這一戰略。

近幾個月來,中國新冠肺炎封鎖,影響了能源需求。根據最近的數據,就業前景是最糟糕的。

由於這些封鎖,中國煉油廠在7月份處理了自2020年3月以來最少的石油量。更多煉油廠因維護而關閉也產生了影響。

原油價格上週飆升,此前OPEC+同意在11月和12月減產200萬桶/日,降幅超過預期的100萬桶/日。沙特阿拉伯能源部長表示,由於原油產量的減少,這一數字可能在100萬桶/天左右,一些成員的抽油量已經低於他們的分配量。印度原油需求更加強勁,石油產品消費量同比增長超過8%,提振了市場前景。

尼日利亞石油部長宣布,歐佩克希望原油價格保持在每桶90美元左右,“我們必須採取一切措施確保價格保持在”這一區間,這一消息提振了油價。

歐佩克9月原油產量增加23萬桶/天,達到2.5年高點2989萬桶/天。利比亞9月原油出口量猛增25%至116萬桶/日,對市場不利。

本週將會看到經濟數據影響原油價格,週三的美聯儲會議紀要將是下一步政策步驟的指南。我們將在第二天發布最新的美國通脹數據,高於預期的數據可能會對原油產生負面影響。

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