差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美元/新幣多年交易區間中的關鍵水平

自 2015 年以來,美元/新幣一直在一個區間內波動; 以下是關鍵水平。

USDSGD: Monthly Chart

美元/新幣:月線圖

自 2016 年以來,1.44 水平一直是美元/新幣外匯貨幣對的上限,目前已四次測試該水平。支撐位在1.3150,已經測試了3次。最近一次測試是在 2023 年 1 月,如果美元找到支撐,可能會上漲 1,300 點至1.44的高點。任一方向的突破都可能導致類似的上漲或下跌走勢。

大華銀行集團的高級經濟學家 Alvin Liew 討論了新加坡 5 月份最新的 NODX 數據以及他對經濟增長的展望。

“新加坡非石油國內出口(NODX)惡化程度超出預期,進一步令第二季度經濟前景黯淡。NODX從4月份的-9.8%同比暴跌14.7%,遠低於彭博社的中值預期 -7.9%,也我們不太悲觀的預測為 -5.7%。這是連續第8個月的收縮,此前連續22個月的擴張。

“NODX 的更大幅度下滑,以及電子和非電子行業的表現普遍疲軟,繼續對新加坡的製造業需求產生負面影響。該地區主要出口目的地的 NODX 下降趨勢進一步證實了我們的謹慎觀點。 我們維持全球需求將持續疲軟的預期,並且我們仍處於電子產品的衰退週期中,”他補充道。

“出口前景依然黯淡……我們重申,新加坡可能在 2023 年上半年陷入技術性衰退,這主要是由於製造業疲軟造成的。”

儘管一直加息,美元在 2023 年仍然崩潰,但仍有可能出潛在的低點。債務協議的達成消除了一些風險,而在中國經濟復甦放緩之後,投資者對亞洲的興趣也有所減弱。

未來幾個月值得關注的長達七年的交易區間將取決於兩國的經濟前景。新加坡在64個經濟體的全球競爭力指數中下降了一位。新加坡目前排名第四,落後於丹麥、愛爾蘭和瑞士,但仍領先於亞洲經濟體。

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