差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

黃金錄得看漲反轉形態

黃金(XAUUSD)顯示出複甦的看漲跡象,並已連續三天重拾看漲勢頭。在周一重測1728.3美元的一個月最低支撐位後,多頭一直在努力將價格維持在1742美元的重要支撐位之上。週四,黃金在亞洲交易時段創下1761.52美元的新高。美元指數(USDX)在本週觸及109.23後逐漸回吐至108.46,這讓黃金得以復蘇。

傑克遜霍爾研討會是一個經濟峰會,各國央行行長、學者、財政部長以及世界各地其他重要的金融市場推動者都參加了這次會議。在這次會議上,政策制定者將不得不討論他們抗擊通脹和推動經濟前進的計劃和目標。今年研討會之前的討論將是如何對抗不斷上升的通貨膨脹。

在這裡,交易員將不得不高度關注各國政策制定者抗擊通脹的決定,這將決定他們在研討會結束後是否會繼續提高利率。

今年研討會的主題是“重新評估經濟和政策的製約因素”。

此次研討會期間,黃金交易商最關心的是美聯儲主席鮑威爾明天將發表的主題演講。

在這方面,投資者將急於從鮑威爾的講話中解讀美聯儲是否仍對漸進加息的貨幣政策持強硬態度,它將進一步打壓黃金價格

鮑威爾和出席此次研討會的其他美聯儲成員所持的立場,將在很大程度上決定本月剩餘時間金價的走向。

相反,鮑威爾的言論聽起來有些鴿派,強調有必要放慢激進的加息步伐,則黃金價格有望有更大的上漲勢頭。

在鮑威爾發表講話之前,今天影響金價的另一個關鍵因素是今晚將發布的美國GDP初步季度報告。 GDP報告的結果將對美元的強勢產生巨大影響,而美元的強勢又將影響金價。如果美國GDP報告的數據走高,美元將走強,黃金將走弱,而如果美國GDP報告的數據走低,將有利於目前黃金的看漲趨勢。這一數據的預測是-0.7%,前值是-0.9%。

GDP價格指數季數,數據衡量了GDP報告中所有商品和服務價格的年化變化。這份報告意義重大,因為它可以從GDP數據中預測美國的年化通脹。

最重要的是,美國的失業救濟申請報告將是今天影響黃金上漲趨勢的第三個因素。這份報告的解讀對投資者至關重要,因初請失業金人數下降將質疑勞動力市場是否有能力承受進一步的激進加息而不陷入衰退。這可能迫使美聯儲繼續逐步收緊貨幣政策。

考慮到這一點,申請失業救濟人數的上升將有利於黃金的上漲趨勢,並削弱美元,而失業救濟人數的下降將有利於美元並削弱黃金。這個數據的預測與前值相同,預計在25萬。

傑克遜霍爾研討會召開前的黃金價格預測

在今天的亞洲交易中,黃金在1767.74美元處面臨強勁的阻力。突破該阻力位將觸發黃金的更多上行,目標位在1772.30美元。如果收盤價高於這個阻力位,下一個預期的水平是1777.12美元。

相反,如果金價在1767.74美元的當前阻力位被否決,可以預期1750美元的支撐位將再次被測試。跌破這一水平將讓位於1747美元或1740美元。如果這兩個支撐位在鮑威爾明天的演講後未能守住,預期會有更多下行,目標位在1731美元。

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