差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由於槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 62.96% 的零售投資者帳戶在跟這個供應商交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。
62.96% 的零售投資者帳戶在跟這個供應商交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。
差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由於槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 62.96%的零售投資者帳戶在跟這個供應商交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險
75.12% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs / Spread betting with this provider.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.12% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs / Spread betting with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs / Spread betting work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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中概股年終一夜暴漲,今年有望扭轉頹勢嗎?

在歲末年終時,中概股上演了一出大反轉。美股三大指數年末集體收跌,惟衡量中概股整體表現的納斯達克金龍中國指數突然一夜暴漲9.4%,創下2008年以來最大單日漲幅,中概股總市值一夜增長逾6000億元人民幣。當天美股開市後,中概股全線升超過1成,其中愛奇藝升17%,騰訊音樂、蔚來汽車升15%,就連最弱勢的教育股也出現急升,高途升22%。究竟為什麼會出現大反轉?今年中概股的前景又將如何?

 

今年以來,中概股一直表現慘淡,彭博消息稱,在美中概股市值自2月以來已累計蒸發超過1萬億美元。由於投資者包括散戶普遍看淡中概股,部分中概股的淡倉極重,但成交量卻不大,為外資大戶製造挾淡倉的好機會,並造成搶貨效應,令中概股在歲末時刻出現暴漲。

 

此次單日大反轉並不能徹底一掃中概股在投資者心中長期積累的低迷印象。不過,這是否意味著今年中概股在今年有望出現反彈?

 

中金公司在報告中表示,突然的大漲可能是一些技術性因素所致,如空頭回補等等,此外也不排除有年底衝業績需要和一部分稅收抵扣的因素。但在技術性因素之外,考慮到海外中資股經過近一年下跌後所處的估值水平和相對吸引力,他們的分析團隊認為也不排除的確存在一部分為2022年做佈局的資金所驅動。

 

至於中概股未來前景,中金公司也給出了正面的看法。其分析人士表示,隨著短期不確定性逐步消退和穩增長政策進一步落地,他們認為海外中資股市場有望逐步反彈,進而吸引更多資金流入。不過,風險和不確定性依然存在,如來自中美關係以及全球Omicron疫情等多方面消息的干擾。

 

由於政治環境不穩定和監管政策不明朗等因素,外資對中國企業的投資擔憂仍會持續。包含索羅斯基金公司、避險基金英仕曼集團等大型機構投資人日前皆表示,非常擔憂在美國和亞洲交易的中概股前景。

 

今年亦有大量中概股“回流”香港市場的現象,所以未來預計會出現更多中概股選擇從美股退市或更換上市地點。除了計劃回香港上市的滴滴之外,今年還有可能“回流”的中概股數量較多,包括拼多多、蔚來汽車、貝殼、騰訊音樂娛樂、富途控股等。

 

另一方面,市場也在擔憂美聯儲的加息週期即將來臨,在緊縮政策的背景之下,中概股投資者尤其會擔憂會不會出現中國境內的美元資金外流和人民幣對美元貶值的情況,部分中概股的股價市值已經縮水,匯率的波動對中概股估值或會造成進一步的負面影響。

 

雖然諸多不明朗因素仍然有待觀察,大多數投資者仍對中概股持審慎態度,但是中美關係在朝著緩和方向努力、投資者仍然看好中國國內消費增長等因素都會成為中概股未來反彈的動力來源。長期來說,中概股企業應該將改善自身盈利和提升競爭力作為發展重點,保持穩定增長的業績才能獲得投資人的青睞。短期來說,目前國家“穩增長”的政策會利好部分金融、地產板塊以及中下游消費板塊的中概股。

Last Updated: 04/01/2022

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.


 

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