差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

英國央行有望降低量化寬鬆規模,英鎊未來走向如何?

本周市場關注的焦點英國央行利率決議今晚即將揭曉,市場普遍預計將在本周的利率決議上宣佈加息25個基點,再之前英國央行已經連續三次加息,今晚是否會持續加息還有待委員會成員的同意。

同時,市場亦關注英央行何時開始縮減購債,一旦英央行正式宣佈縮減購債,首先會衝擊債市,對英鎊有較大機會的提振作用。 摩根大通早前預計,美國、英國和歐元區的央行債券需求今年將減少1.7萬億美元,2022年將減少2萬億美元。

通脹飆升和經濟衰退的博弈

和美國一樣,英國目前也正深陷通脹高企的困局之中,對經濟衰退的擔憂和通脹高企的現實反覆左右著英央行的政策決定。 英央行連續加息的背後是通脹的直線飆升,當前英國的通貨膨脹率已處於30年來最高水準,3月份英國通貨膨脹率飆升至7%,這一數據也反映出俄烏衝突對歐洲能源、糧食等供應鏈帶來的負面經濟影響。

uk inflation(來源:Bloomberg)

在過去的4月英國的通脹還在持續飆升,有經濟學家預計,今年4月英國通貨膨脹率可能將高達8%。 摩根大通經濟學家蒙克斯認為英國通脹上升幅度更大,預計4月通脹將升至接近9%的水平,觸及今年的峰值。 考慮到10月家庭能源價格將進一步上漲30%,通脹在今年年底前將一直維持在高位。

能源和糧食成為英國通脹飆升的主因。 從4月1日起,英國普通家庭使用的能源價格上限大幅上漲,每年的能源價格上限比此前上漲約700英鎊,漲幅達54%。 加上糧食危機正在席捲英國,由於價格不斷上漲,食品行業將出現大規模收縮,威脅到英國未來的糧食安全。

英國的經濟增速正在放緩,預計其2022年增長3.6%,較2021年的7.5%低近一半。 勞動力市場仍然緊張,因物價增長超過工資的漲幅,有大量的人選擇離開勞動力市場。 此外,在此次會議上,英國央行可能會在此次利率決議上給出更多關於如何縮減8470億英鎊的指引,加息和縮表等緊縮政策或將進一步為經濟增長帶來下行壓力,英央行需要在權衡經濟增長和抑制通脹中找到最佳平衡點。

未來英鎊走勢如何?

為抑制飛升的通脹,英央行是率先宣佈加息的央行,隨後難以停下加息的步伐,市場預計接下來英央行會議上可能出現50個基點幅度加息的預期迅速增強,並認為該央行將有機會在3月和5月的會議上累計升息75個基點。 不過,受限於對經濟衰退的擔憂在英國國內持續,激進的加息政策可能性不太大,但是持續性的加息步伐可能還難以停下。

未來英鎊的上行機會仍然較大,不過還需要觀察此次會議對於加息的最終決定,若英央行持續加息有利於英鎊進一步上行。 由於當前通脹的上升水準對英國國內的消費者信心已經產生了嚴重的打擊,英央行加息的立場可能不會過於強硬,也可能對英鎊的提振空間有所限制。

而早前有消息稱英國銀行將開始減少其持有的金邊債券庫存,如果在此次會議上英國央行進一步說明未來如何減持8750億英鎊的英國政府債券,讓市場瞭解未來貨幣緊縮的趨勢,也會增加英鎊受到提振的機會。 隨著英國未來開始縮減量化寬鬆投資組合,交易員也增加了對未來借貸成本上升的押注。

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