差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

本週由澳大利亞消費者信心指數揭開序幕

西太平洋銀行的澳大利亞消費者信心數據將開啟金融和外匯市場的一周財經日曆。

AUDUSD – Daily Chart

澳元/美元 – 日線圖

澳元/美元從支撐位反彈,並上看 0.6784 的阻力位。

上週澳新銀行和羅伊摩根發布的澳大利亞消費者信心下降。人們擔心澳大利亞央行將再次加息,這給許多澳大利亞人的抵押貸款還款前景施加了進一步的壓力。

根據澳新銀行和羅伊摩根的調查,消費者指數下降 0.4 點,處於負值區域。在央行加息和採取進一步行動的威脅出乎市場意料之後,澳大利亞經濟陷入衰退的風險急劇上升。

澳大利亞儲備銀行行長 Philip Lowe 一直在努力降低通貨膨脹率,同時將失業率保持在 50 年低點附近。在意外利率升至 4.10% 並且對未來利率持鷹派立場後,Lowe 表示,這條道路將是崎嶇不平的,降低高通脹將優先於就業問題。

“不過,我想明確表示,保持強勁的勞動力市場的渴望並不意味著董事會將容忍更高的通脹持續存在,”Lowe 說。

這些評論使投資者預期至少還會有一次加息並存在經濟衰退的風險,這是該國 30 多年來的首次衰退。

匯豐銀行的 Paul Bloxham 表示:“考慮到已經實施的加息,我們認為這可能會使經濟停滯……完全衰退的風險很高。”

這位分析師預計,未來四個季度的季度增長率平均僅為 0.1%,經濟崩潰的可能性為 50%。澳大利亞聯邦銀行將今年經濟衰退的可能性定為 50%,並預計年增長率將放緩至 0.7%。

美聯儲預計將在周三暫停加息,以評估之前加息的影響。

然而,聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 成員在 6 月 13 日至 14 日會議之前仍存在分歧,少數成員仍在推動連續第 11 次加息。美聯儲成員克里斯托弗·沃勒上個月表示:“我不支持停止加息,除非我們得到明確的證據表明通脹正在朝著我們 2% 的目標下降,”。

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