差价合约是复杂的金融交易产品,可带来由杠杆作用而导致迅速亏损的高风险。大部分的零售投资者帐户在跟交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。您应当考虑您是否充分明白差价合约如何运作,以及您是否能承受您的资金损失的高风险。

美元高位回落 测试95.7水平

上星期美国公布CPI及零售销售数据后,美元从18个月高位回落,触及20周线94.68后回稳上升,美元兑主要货币由低位回升。本周美国公布的房屋数据和首领及续领失业金人数。关注疫情以来,美国房地产市场的行情一直非常火热,房价飊升问题似乎不太可能在2022年缓解,还有就业情况持续改善,可能进一步推高房价,这些利好因素可能支撑美元。技术上,美元收复95失地后,接下来测试10日线95.70,若站上96水平可望向前高96.40。

 

另外,本周市场重视欧罗区,英国及加拿大的CPI数据,可能指引相关央行的货币政策取向。

 

就业数据影响英镑

英镑自今年开局走势保持强劲,因外界猜测英国央行将在下个月再次加息,概率已达到 78%。投资者关注明日公布的英国就业数据,因英国疫情肆虐期间,暴露英国劳动力市场长期供需不衡的问题,包括劳动力短缺带来供应链瓶颈,间接影响物资运送和供应问题引发通胀飙升。若明日公布的英国就业数据远逊上月,可能增加英镑下行压力,初步留意技术支撑位1.3626及1.3588。随后关注英国CPl和零售销售数据,若表现超乎预期增长或提振英镑,目标将在三个月前高位1.3830。

加拿大经济复甦步伐强劲,市场认为央行加息的可能性达80%,这与加拿大央行的指引形成鲜明对比,即 4 月可能是最早时间加息。因此,即将发布的通胀数据和零售销售数据可能至为重要。另外,投资者亦需观察本周内公布的OPEC和IEA月度原油市场报告。若各油组对原油供应保持乐观增长的态度或指引油价再度上升,间接支持加元,美元兑加元可望下试三个月前低位1.2287,而技术重要阻力位留意1.2693。

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