差价合约是复杂的金融交易产品,可带来由杠杆作用而导致迅速亏损的高风险。大部分的零售投资者帐户在跟交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。您应当考虑您是否充分明白差价合约如何运作,以及您是否能承受您的资金损失的高风险。

美联储和欧洲央行分化正在形成,欧元兑美元守住阵地

欧元兑美元周二维持在1.1800上方,受助于对美联储和欧洲央行货币政策分化的预期升温。

EURUSD Chart

欧元兑美元-图表

美联储主席鲍威尔的最新言论强化了美联储的鸽派立场,他将当前政策描述为“适度限制”,同时承认就业下行风险上升。根据Prime Market Terminal的数据,市场预计10月会议降息25个基点的可能性为91%。

与此同时,欧洲央行行长拉加德最近断言“反通胀过程已经结束”,这表明欧洲央行不愿进一步放松货币政策,为欧元走强创造了有利的背景。

经济逆风加剧

采购经理人指数预览值显示两国经济同步放缓。美国制造业PMI从53.0降至52.0,服务业PMI从54.5降至53.9。欧元区也表现出类似的疲软,制造业指数从50.7降至49.5,但服务业指数小幅上升至51.4。

在本周美国GDP公布前,经济活动数据恶化引发担忧,并强化了美联储宽松政策的理由。

技术面概述

欧元兑美元的看涨吞噬模式将该货币对推高至1.1800上方,不过势头依然低迷。关键阻力位位于1.1850,焦点在年度高点1.1918。支撑位出现在1.1750,随后是1.1700和关键的1.1560-1.1574区域。

经济增长放缓和政策分歧的交叉作用使得欧元/美元在更明确的方向性催化剂出现之前保持区间波动。

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