差价合约是复杂的金融交易产品,可带来由杠杆作用而导致迅速亏损的高风险。大部分的零售投资者帐户在跟交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。您应当考虑您是否充分明白差价合约如何运作,以及您是否能承受您的资金损失的高风险。

在指标显示获利回吐及缺乏经验买家拖累下,比特币大跌

在市场动态显示反弹可能已经失去动力后,比特币大幅下跌。

BTCUSD – Daily Chart

BTCUSD -日线图

比特币的价格未能维持在112,000美元上方的涨幅,并为重新测试107,443美元的水平打开了大门。从现在开始,不能排除向10万美元迈进的可能性。

比特币是全球市值最大的加密货币,已进入本轮周期的“历史性后期阶段”,其获利回吐指标和资本流动与之前的周期高点类似。这是加密数据公司Glassnode的评估。

数据显示,比特币目前的上涨与2015-2018年和2018-2022年的上涨有相似之处,当时的历史高点是在当前相对阶段大约两到三个月后达到的。

该公司指出,比特币的流通供应已经连续273天高于+1标准差的利润区间,仅次于2015-2018年周期的335天。长期代币持有者已经获得了比以往任何一个周期更多的利润,这表明卖方压力正在加大,短期资金正在支撑市场走势。

Glassnode在一份周报中写道:“这些信号强化了这样一种观点,即当前周期正处于历史性的后期阶段。”该报告同时指出,在之前的周期中,这些类型的行为往往在几个月内就会出现新的历史高点。

CryptoQuant的数据也强调了这个问题,最新的比特币持有者(钱包持有为一个月以下)现在是净正的,因为这个群体持有的比特币供应量在9月份增加了73,702比特币。对于投机市场来说,股市由散户资金主导是一个令人担忧的迹象,而经验不足的交易员现在正在支持比特币交易。

尽管新进入者有所增加,但仍有迹象表明大型投资者有兴趣。所谓的鲸鱼投资者继续增持,钱包里持有10到1万枚代币,自8月底以来,他们的代币数量增加到56000多枚。上个月,交易所余额也减少了3.1万比特币,这可能会减少短期内可供出售的比特币数量。

在最新一轮抛售之前,ETF资金流入遭受了4.39亿美元的抛售,抹去了上周的大部分资金流入,此前美联储主席鲍威尔仍专注于通胀言论。比特币etf受到的打击最为严重,资金流出3.631亿美元,其中富达的FBTC和ARK 21Shares的ARKB损失2.76亿美元,资金流出5200万美元。如果交易员在这些水平上进一步获利,这些数字可能会变得更糟。

美国科技股指数当天也下跌,鲍威尔的鹰派立场令市场感到震惊,而比特币控股公司MSTR当天损失了近10%的市值。

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