差价合约是复杂的金融交易产品,可带来由杠杆作用而导致迅速亏损的高风险。大部分的零售投资者帐户在跟交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。您应当考虑您是否充分明白差价合约如何运作,以及您是否能承受您的资金损失的高风险。

澳元兑美元即将迎接澳储行会议纪要

澳元兑美元汇率将于周二聚焦澳大利亚央行会议纪要公布,分析师正在寻找降息路径的线索。

AUDUSD – Daily Chart

澳元兑美元-日线图

当我们接近数据时,澳元兑美元的价格看起来是倾向看跌的,可能会测试0.6133这个水平。

本周公布的GDP数据预计将使澳大利亚经济从数十年低点反弹。澳大利亚统计局将于周三公布12月份的国民经济核算数据,预计该数据将显示澳大利亚经济较截至9月份的三个月0.8%的年增长率有所加速。

此前的数据是自1990-91年经济衰退以来最低的,不包括大流行。市场目前预计季度增长率将从0.3%上升到0.5%,这意味着2024年美国经济将增长1.2%,远低于上世纪60年代以来超过3.0%的年平均水平。

经济学家们被迫下调了他们的预测,因为资本支出在12月当季出人意料地萎缩了0.2%。这些数据包括工厂和设备投资低于预期的结果,这导致摩根大通分析师Tom Kennedy下调了他对美国GDP的预期。

对资本支出的前瞻性估计也明显弱于预期,这给“近期GDP增长带来了潜在的阻力”。在看到关税的真正结果之前,企业可能会撤回与大宗商品相关的投资。

过去两个季度的劳动生产率有所下降,西太平洋银行高级经济学家Pat Bustamante预计,今年的劳动生产率将下降1.25%,而工作时间将增加2.5%。

他表示:“尽管总体表现不佳,但这是受到非市场部门和采矿业扩张的推动。”“非矿业市场部门的表现与价格和成本压力有着更直接的关系。”

在重要的GDP增长数据公布之前,澳大利亚央行将于香港时间上午8:30发布会议纪要,投资者将关注央行在未来几个月希望采取何种行动。

分析师将研究澳大利亚央行最近的会议,寻找进一步降息的线索。

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