在日本央行加息和债券缩减预期的推动下,日元兑美元反弹

预计日本央行将于周三宣布缩减其大规模债券购买计划的计划,并讨论可能的加息问题,这标志着日本央行将告别十年来的大规模货币刺激政策。

随着美联储暗示可能在9月前降息,日本央行为期两天的会议将决定在1-1/2至两年内决定将每月购债规模削减一半。委员会还将讨论将隔夜拆借利率目标从0-0.1%上调至0.25%,可能达到2008年以来的最高水平。

日本放送协会和日本经济新闻社的报道暗示,日本央行正在考虑加息,周三将日元兑美元汇率推高至152.65。东京早盘,日本2年期国债收益率飙升。

Okasan Securities首席债券策略师Naoya Hasegawa指出:“如果加息,到2025财年末,日本的利率将上升到1%。”他强调了向正利率环境转变的可能性。

路透调查显示,逾四分之三的分析师预计日本央行将维持当前利率不变,但日本经济面临通胀上升和基本薪资大幅上涨的问题。然而,生活成本的增加抑制了消费,导致第一季度经济萎缩。

周三公布的数据显示,6月份工厂产出下降3.6%,不过预计未来产量将上升。零售额同比增长3.7%,超出预期。

日本央行行长植田和男表示,如果工资上涨维持2%的通胀率,可能会进一步加息。日本央行的目标是在不抑制经济增长的情况下将短期利率平衡在0.5%到1.5%之间。日本央行的决定将先于美联储宣布,美联储预计将维持目前的利率,但暗示未来会降息。对日元疲软的担忧促使人们呼吁更快地改变接近于零的利率。

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