由于日本央行警告将采取行动,美元兑日元汇率继续走高

美元兑日元汇率再次攀升,促使日本央行发出警告。

USDJPY - Weekly Chart

美元兑日元-周线图

美元兑日元一直在从4月份关税驱动的低点缓慢复苏,目前正瞄准此前的高点。第一个阻力信号是在158.00之前从当前水平上升2.7%左右。

继美元/日元近期走势之后,日本财务大臣再次向交易员发出警告。

Katayama周二表示,“我看到汇市出现单边快速波动,我们以高度紧迫感评估事态发展的立场没有改变”。

2024年,当该货币对突破160.00时,央行对外汇市场进行了干预。银行再次进入的风险是存在的,但美国投资银行认为这种情况不会很快发生。

高盛和美国银行的分析师认为,日本政府几乎不会立即采取干预措施,他们表示,通常的触发因素“尚未达到”。

Karen Reichgott Fishman本周在一份报告中写道,日元“似乎并没有处于特别疲弱的水平”。

美国银行的Shusuke Yamada也认同这一看法,他表示,美元兑日元“在没有过度波动或投机性头寸积累的情况下,不太可能立即引发干预”。

市场对日本新首相的任命反应缓慢。10月份日元兑美元汇率下跌4%,成为表现最差的10国集团货币。在市场消化了日本首相高市早苗的财政扩张举措和鸽派货币政策之后,日本股市出现了抛售。上周日本央行维持利率不变后,日元也走弱。日本央行行长植田和男对未来加息没有给出多少指导,并表示央行的货币政策没有落后的风险。

美联储主席鲍威尔最近的讲话提振了美元。美联储在10月份的会议上下调利率,但对12月份加息的必要性存在分歧。

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