美国科技股保持强劲,但利率迫在眉睫

美国纳斯达克 100 指数的股票交易价格接近 2024 年的高点,但更高的利率带来谨慎。

NAS 100 – Daily Chart

NAS 100 – 日线图

周四,在债券价格小幅下跌后,纳斯达克 100 指数交易价格为 21,818。历史高点近在咫尺,支撑位已在 20,781 处测试一次。

周四,科技股小幅下跌,因为美国债券收益率达到六个月高点。市场反弹的部分原因是美联储迅速降息的预期,但上周的 FOMC 利率决定抑制了这种预期。

美联储只发出了 2025 年两次降息的信号,但交易员可能对经济结果不太确定。对唐纳德特朗普新政府放松管制的预期也可能是交易员忽视美联储更新的原因。市场预计 1 月 28 日至 29 日 FOMC 会议上降息 25 个基点的可能性为 9%。

美国股市受到亚洲股市的提振,中国股市收盘小幅走高,原因是市场猜测中国可能在 2025 年发行创纪录的 3 万亿元人民币(4110 亿美元)特别国债以支持经济。特朗普的关税威胁可能会确保中国人民银行采取某种形式的行动。

未来一年将依赖于人工智能的反弹,大型科技公司是否能继续向 Nvidia 等公司的图形芯片投入数十亿美元还有待观察。

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