美元在近期反弹后测试关键的100点支撑位

关税紧张局势的缓和带动美元反弹,熟悉的价格水平重新发挥作用。

USDX - Daily Chart
美元-日线图

美元指数已反弹至100上方,需要找到持续的买盘来捍卫该价位,升至104将是美元的首个目标。

在特朗普赢得大选后,美元一直处于过山车般的走势,最高点接近110美元。今年以来,市场信心受到侵蚀,大约一周前,分析师对美元在市场中的作用持悲观态度。

“我们认为这不是短期波动。这是一个稳定而深远的转变的开始阶段,”Devere集团首席执行官奈杰尔格林说。

“美元的霸主地位不会在一夜之间消失,但它毫无疑问的统治地位正在消失。这种下降不是崩盘——而是侵蚀。”

他的评论是基于这样一种观点,即在最近的关税混乱之后,各国都在寻求扩大其客户群。

“人们对美元被用作政治工具的想法越来越感到不安”,这可能会造成一个“更加分散的货币体系”。

最近美国和中国之间关税的放松,使人们对美元的信心在短期内恢复。然而,其他国家能在多大程度上实现多元化仍有待观察。中国4月份出口同比增长8%,企业争相规避即将到来的关税。

中国认为美国与英国的贸易协议,可能损害经济。北京方面表示,贸易协议的“基本原则”是,它们不应针对其他国家。

美元的短期趋势是在可能的过度波动后反弹。如果90天的关税暂停继续下去,没有任何迹象表明双方将达成更长时间的协议,未来几周的紧张局势可能会进一步加剧。

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