特朗普加大美联储攻击力度,美元指数下滑

在美国司法部对美联储展开刑事调查后,美元兑其他全球货币下跌。

USDX – Daily Chart

美元-日线图

美元正朝着100的关键水平移动,有回到98.00支撑位的风险。

高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius警告说,对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事起诉加剧了人们对央行独立性正在被削弱的担忧。随着调查的继续,这也带来了市场动荡的风险。

“显然,人们更担心美联储的独立性将受到威胁,有关鲍威尔主席受到刑事调查的最新消息确实加剧了这些担忧。”

“我毫不怀疑,他(鲍威尔)在剩余的主席任期内将根据经济数据做出决定,不会受到这样或那样的影响,不会因可能推动经济增长的数据而进一步降息或拒绝降息,” Hatzius补充道。

市场担心特朗普过多地干预政策,而政策是由美联储独立制定的。美联储小心翼翼地使用通货膨胀和就业数据集来制定货币政策,但特朗普认为他最了解并希望执行降息。

他相信消费者会花更多的钱,恢复生活,但他忽视了信心和财富推动这些动力。最近就业市场和消费者信心的趋势表明,环境正在衰退,如果数据进一步走弱,情况可能会恶化。

鲍威尔说,这项调查与鲍威尔今年早些时候关于美联储大楼多年翻修的证词有关。但他也指责特朗普对美联储独立性的敌对立场,以及他之前对美联储主席决定的评论。

鲍威尔说:“这是关于美联储是否能够继续根据证据和经济状况来设定利率,或者货币政策是否会受到政治压力或恐吓的指导。”

美元的困境推高了黄金和白银,投资者纷纷寻求避险。鲍威尔的任期将于5月结束,调查可能会阻止预期的任何潜在降息。

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