白银跳涨至53美元上方,因市场传现货短缺

白银价格追赶黄金价格上涨,跳涨至50美元以上,因为交易商谈论实物短缺。

XAGUSD – Daily Chart

现货白银-日线图

现货白银从7月份的40.00美元以下飙升至53.00美元左右。2011年的高点是50美元,这是进一步上涨的关键支撑位。

全球白银市场正面临几十年来最大的危机,印度在节日期间的需求出现了前所未有的激增。印度周六庆祝了排灯节,周一庆祝了排灯节,由于金价飙升,数百万人争相购买白银。

MMTC-Pamp India的Vipin Raina告诉彭博社,白银的规模超出了预期。印度最大的贵金属精炼厂有史以来第一次耗尽了金属。

他表示:“在我27年的职业生涯中,我从未见过这种疯狂的市场——人们在这样的价位买入。”

短缺也波及到伦敦,交易商称市场“几近崩溃”,主要银行拒绝报价。尽管伦敦金融城持有超过360亿美元的白银,但其中大部分由交易所交易基金(ETF)的投资者持有。

根据彭博社的数据,从2025年初开始,ETF投资者已经购买了超过1亿盎司的白银。这减少了可用于满足印度等国突然需求的库存。

最大的贵金属交易商摩根大通已经通知客户,10月份没有多余的白银可交付给印度。情况变得如此糟糕,以至于印度的基金经理被迫停止了对其基金的新认购。

由于最近的事件引发了一些囤积,白银市场可能会继续紧张。银行可能希望增加储备,以避免未来出现问题。

与此同时,Hecla Mining前首席执行官Phil Baker表示,目前的白银市场与2011年那次失败的突破不同。他提到了前所未有的、持续多年的供应短缺,以及投资者心理的深刻转变。

由于贝克所说的实物需求“永不满足”,而供应链严重受限,白银供应短缺已进入第五年。他说:“黄金的需求量大约是12亿盎司,而来自金矿的供应量大约是8亿盎司。“回收利用可能会产生1.5亿盎司……它不能填补空白。”

50美元目前是银价的关键水准,若找到该水平的支撑,白银可能继续走高。

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