英国预算案公布后,英镑兑美元汇率承压

由于对债务水平的担忧加剧,英镑兑美元汇率在过去几天有所下跌。

GBPUSD – Daily Chart

英镑兑美元-日图

英镑兑美元的价格已经跌破1.30,如果反弹失败,可能会出现更低的水平。下一个重要支撑目标位在1.27。

英国政府的独立预测机构警告称,除非削减支出和提高税收,否则英国债务目前正处于“不可持续的道路上”。英国预算责任办公室(OBR)表示,能源价格飙升和人口老龄化带来的压力是英国可能导致经济衰退的风险。OBR表示,从化石燃料汽车转向电动汽车也对税收构成威胁。该组织表示,未来50年,债务水平可能会增长三倍。

更高的通胀正在增加英国的利息支付,该国的利息支付达到76亿英镑,为有记录以来的最高水平,比去年同期增加了31亿英镑。预算责任办公室在其财政风险和可持续性报告中表示,英国政府今年在帮助家庭应对生活成本危机方面的支出,与在2008年金融危机期间支持经济的支出一样多。

OBR表示,将债务恢复到GDP的75%“需要增加税收,减少支出,或者两者兼而有之”。

OBR表示:“从长远来看,人口老龄化对支出的压力以及低碳经济中现有汽车税的减少,使公共债务走上了一条不可持续的道路。”政府已承诺从2030年起禁止销售新的汽油和柴油动力汽车,这将取消燃油税作为税收来源。

英国零售销售数据将于香港时间周二上午8点公布,分析师预计将从1.7%降至1.4%。英国前首相苏纳克表示,工党的预算“一次又一次地违背了承诺”。

“他们不喜欢这样,但这是事实。他们把数字做了手脚。他们将税收提高到了创纪录的水平。他们违背了自己的承诺,现在要付出代价的是这个国家的劳动人民。”

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