美俄敌对状态带动原油价格上涨

由于特朗普总统缩短了对俄罗斯制裁的时间框架,油价上涨了3%。

USOIL – Weekly Chart

USOIL -每周图表

在周线图上,美国原油的价格正在接近70.00美元的水平,但这与与2024年7月高点相连的强劲下行趋势线一致。如果突破上述水平,油价可能进一步上涨。

由于特朗普就乌克兰局势加大了对俄罗斯的压力,周二油价上涨了3%以上。美国和欧洲之间的协议还包括一项能源协议,这将促进美国的销售。

特朗普周二表示,如果莫斯科不努力结束乌克兰战争,他将在“10天后”开始对俄罗斯征收关税。美国财政部长贝森特也表示,他告诉中国官员,鉴于美国对俄罗斯石油征收二级关税,如果北京继续从俄罗斯购买原油,中国可能面临高关税。

在美国,上周原油库存增加了154万桶,交易员将等待周四的每周数据。能源巨头雪佛龙公司表示,它正在将其二叠纪页岩井从增长阶段转移到产生现金的阶段,这意味着过去十年来美国国内钻井的真正繁荣正在达到平台期。

美国银行大宗商品主管Francisco Blanch表示:“支撑油价的因素之一是夏季几个月的季节性强势。”

“今年下半年的盈余将接近2亿桶,”他表示,这可能打压油价。这种分析可能在10天内变得无关紧要,因为特朗普最终可能会对俄罗斯采取行动。

在炼油方面,由于供应趋紧和需求强劲,全球最大的石油出口国沙特阿拉伯可能会连续第二个月将面向亚洲买家的原油价格提高至五个月高点。

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由于鲍威尔中性基调削弱美元,欧元兑美元反弹

欧元兑美元周二攀升至1.16上方,受助于美联储主席鲍威尔的谨慎政策立场,以及法国政治紧张局势暂时缓和,此前法国政府暂停了备受争议的养老金改革。 鲍威尔在一个经济论坛上发表讲话,重申了“逐次会议”的利率决策方式,并表示劳动力市场的风险现在比通胀担忧更重要。虽然他指出,经济仍比预期强劲,但他承认就业方面的脆弱性日益增加,这增强了人们对进一步放松货币政策的预期。

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