美联储不确定性令美元承压,金价升至创纪录新高

特朗普批评美联储主席鲍威尔不履行降息承诺,称其为“主要输家”,黄金价格飙升至历史新高。

由于担心美联储的独立性和持续的滞胀风险,美元指数(DXY)大幅下跌至97.92。

随着政策不确定性加剧,市场参与者正密切关注美联储官员杰弗逊、哈克和卡什卡利本周即将发表的讲话。

本周金价开盘上涨,涨幅超过2.56%,创下3430美元的历史新高,原因是一些声明可能会影响美联储的自主权。目前,黄金的交易价格为3,419美元。

随着美国总统特朗普继续向美联储施压,批评美联储主席鲍威尔,并声称他在降低借贷成本方面一直行动迟缓,黄金需求上升。

在此前一周,鲍威尔表示,美联储采取了谨慎的态度,并暗示存在滞胀的可能性,承认可能出现“我们的双重任务目标处于紧张状态的具有挑战性的情况”。

特朗普和鲍威尔之间不断升级的紧张关系,加上有争议的贸易政策,对美元产生了负面影响,美元指数(DXY)跌至97.92的三年低点。

就经济数据而言,美国经济日历目前很少;然而,预计经济活动将增加,主要受美联储官员言论的推动。副主席杰弗逊、费城联邦储备银行总裁哈克和明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行总裁卡什卡利定于周二发表讲话。

尽管美国国债收益率上升,黄金价格仍创历史新高

美国10年期国债收益率上升4个基点,至4.373%,但这并未抑制金价上涨。

美国的实际收益率也有所上升,上升3.5个基点至2.14%,美国10年期通货膨胀保值债券的收益率就是明证。

在固定收益市场,货币市场参与者已经消化了美联储到2025年底将降息94.5个基点的预期,预计首次降息将在7月份进行。

本周的美国经济日历包括美联储官员的众多演讲、标准普尔全球采购经理人指数、耐用品订单以及密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值。

黄金技术分析:短期内金价有望接近3,450美元

金价的上行轨迹保持不变,有可能在下个季度测试花旗预测的3500美元的水平。相对强弱指数(RSI)已进入超买区域,暗示可能出现价格回调;然而,超过最近的峰值可能会推动多头在短期内达到3450美元。

相反,如果跌破3400美元,最初的支撑位将在4月17日的高点3357美元,随后是3300美元。

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