英镑兑日元期待零售销售数据带来上涨

随着周五英国零售销售数据的公布,英镑兑日元汇率正寻求向阻力位移动。

GBPJPY – Daily Chart
英镑兑日元-日线图

英镑兑日元的阻力位在194.71,该水平在1月和4月一直是该货币对的障碍。如果这次测试失败,英镑可能会出现回调。

英国零售销售数据将于香港时间周五下午2点公布,经济学家预计月度下降0.4%至0.2%。然而,年度数据预计将从2.6%增长到4.5%。

英镑兑美元汇率接近2022年以来的最高水平,通胀升温以及英国与欧洲和美国关系的改善继续支撑英镑。

荷兰国际集团外汇策略师Francesco Pesole表示,“贸易协议总体上对英镑来说是个好消息。”“我们仍然认为英镑处于相当不错的位置。”

最新的通胀数据还可能阻止英国央行未来的降息,并支撑英镑。

英国央行首席经济学家休•皮尔本周表示,鉴于薪资对通胀的压力依然强劲,季度降息步伐“过快”。

“英国央行内部出现了一些不同意见,” ING的Pesole补充道。

5月8日,该国央行在三方投票中将利率下调了25个基点至4.25%,两名成员赞成更大幅度的降息,而包括皮尔在内的两名成员认为维持利率不变是最好的选择。近期的积极情绪应该会继续提振英镑的前景。

与此同时,由于贸易政策的不确定性,日本政府周四下调了对全球经济的评估。在5月份的月度经济报告中,政府近三年来首次下调了对美国经济的预期,称美国经济扩张正在放缓。

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