欧元兑美元聚焦德国通胀和消费者数据

随着周三德国数据的公布,欧元兑美元汇率正在测试阻力位。

EURUSD – Daily Chart

欧元兑美元-日图

在周三数据公布之前,欧元兑美元汇率正在测试1.0885。

欧洲经济于香港时间周三下午2点公布德国消费者信心数据。该数据仍为负值,但预计将较上月有所改善。

随后是香港时间晚上8点的通胀数据,这是5月份的初步数据。预计将从2.2%提高到2.4%,这可能会推高欧元的价格。

然而,投资者正在期待6月6日的欧洲央行会议,届时预计将首次降息。

根据欧洲央行的数据,4月份欧元区消费者通胀预期有所下降。欧洲央行的数据显示,预计未来12个月价格将上涨2.9%,低于3月份的3%。

欧洲央行政策制定者之间仍存在一些相互矛盾的想法,法国央行行长维勒鲁瓦周一表示,欧洲央行不应排除在6月和7月降息的可能性。包括执行委员施纳贝尔在内的更多鹰派政策制定者最近反对连续降息。

首席经济学家菲利普·莱恩表示:“我们看到的情况足以让我们开始降息,”但他补充说:“事情将会很坎坷,而且将是渐进的。”

欧洲央行行长拉加德也暗示,利率可能会在明年开始下降。

拉加德对爱尔兰RTE电视台表示:“我非常有信心,我们已经控制住了通胀。”

他说:“我们对明年和后年的预测即使没有达到目标,也非常非常接近目标。所以,我相信我们已经进入了控制阶段。”

美国消费者信心指数走高,报102.0,预估为95.9。周五将有重要的美国经济数据出炉,包括第一季度GDP数据。分析师预计,由于利率上升继续给经济增长带来压力,美国经济增速将从3.4%降至1.3%。

由于预计下周欧洲将迎来降息,美国GDP可能是近期最重要的数据。

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