欧元兑英镑面临进一步走低的风险,聚焦英国就业报告

英国经济将于周二公布就业报告,这可能会推动英镑进一步升值。

EURGBP - Daily Chart
欧元兑英镑-日图

欧元兑英镑已跌破1月份高点0.8450附近的支撑位。这是避免进一步下跌至0.8320的关键水平。

英国4月份就业报告将于香港时间周二14:00公布。市场正在期待上个月20.6万个就业岗位的改善。尽管就业岗位有所增加,但失业率仍在4.4%左右,最新预期为4.4%。

德国消费者价格指数将于周三同时公布。市场预计该指标将维持在2.2%。任何偏差都可能影响欧洲利率前景。QNB称,该国新政府继承了沉重的遗产,给经济增长带来了重大挑战。自二战以来,德国一直是欧洲的经济强国,但在过去20年里,德国的经济增速有所放缓。

负面的人口趋势,过度的监管和税收负担,以及无法使其行业现代化以适应数字时代。德国经济表现不佳,实际GDP在过去五年中保持不变。相比之下,同期美国经济增长12.2%,其他欧元区国家经济增长5%。

由新总理梅尔茨领导的新政府希望在经济政策和表现方面创造一个转折点。数十年的财政纪律和紧缩即将被一项规模可能达到1万亿欧元(包括基础设施和国防)的大规模财政扩张计划所抛弃。

英国央行首席经济学家表示,关税和贸易不确定性并未导致英国经济发生“戏剧性”转变。此前他指出,人们对新的英美贸易协定的影响存在“误导性”看法。

在英国央行将利率下调至4.25%并下调明年英国经济增长预期后,休•皮尔发表了上述言论。他说:“我认为重要的是,基线预测中的分析并不表明,在这些贸易声明和贸易不确定性的背景下,英国经济的行为会发生巨大变化。”

他补充称:“当地企业目前正寻求加大美元对冲力度,并开始从美国投资转向多元化。”

英镑兑欧元已开始反弹,本周数据将推动英镑进一步走强。

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