马克龙政府面临崩溃,欧元兑英镑汇率下跌

欧元兑英镑汇率周三将有央行行动,该货币对在关键支撑位上交投。

eur-gbp-daily-chart

欧元兑英镑-日图

欧元兑英镑已经连续三天处于下行趋势,目前正在寻找0.8267的支撑位。这一趋势可能更加明显,但由于政府税收和政策,英镑疲软是一个问题。

法国总统马克龙正在与一场政治和经济危机作斗争,因为巴黎的借贷成本周三首次短暂超过了希腊。2010年,希腊处于欧洲债务危机的中心,因此这一事态发展令法国感到尴尬。

在债券市场上,希腊债券的定价为3.02%,而法国债券的定价则升至3.05%。总理米歇尔·巴尼耶努力争取2025年预算的支持,导致了经济困境。他希望通过削减开支和提高税收来解决国家的赤字问题。

法国的问题表现深远,而刺激经济的努力又加剧了问题。该国的预算赤字目前占GDP的6%,而债务与GDP之比已从2015年的95%飙升至112%。去年,马克龙将退休年龄从62岁提高到64岁的决定引发了广泛抗议。欧洲央行行长拉加德最近警告说,如果不进行重大改革,法国的财政轨迹是不可持续的。

最近的活动已经打击了欧元对全球货币的汇率,如果英国没有自己的挣扎,可能会对英镑造成更大的损害。基尔·斯塔默政府执政仅四个月,但面临着农民的抗议、企业的强烈反对以及200万公民要求再次选举的请愿。

许多人认为,政府为了避免增税而食言了。廉价航空公司瑞安航空最近表示抗议,称由于工党的税收突击,他们将减少国内航班数量。

香港时间周五下午3点左右,英国和欧洲的经济日历非常繁忙。英国的房价以及抵押贷款和信贷数据将会公布。德国将公布失业数据,以及欧洲消费者价格通胀数据。

随着汽车行业裁员,德国的就业形势正在恶化。电动汽车需求放缓和中国出口下降损害了这个前欧洲强国。

欧元兑英镑的汇率反映了两个陷入困境的经济体,波动可能会持续下去。

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