欧元兑澳元汇率聚焦即将公布的经济数据

欧元兑澳元汇率聚焦将于周二公布的数据,对法国大选的担忧也会令欧元承压。

EURAUD – Daily Chart

欧元-日图

欧元兑澳元正在测试关键支撑位1.6150。如果该水平被突破,下一个目标是1.5848。

澳储行将于香港时间周二下午12:30召开利率会议。预计将保持现金利率稳定,避免加息,并推迟期待已久的降息。

最近的数据显示,由于消费者削减开支,零售商的利润举步维艰。大宗商品价格下跌也意味着矿业公司的利润下降,第一季度下降了6.1%。这导致经济学家对该国可能出现的经济衰退发出警告。

经济学家预计央行今年将降息,但担心通胀。加拿大央行和欧洲央行最近率先开始降息。如果他们维持利率不变,则可能令欧元承压,因投资者可能看到,如果危机蔓延的压力加大,欧洲央行可能会降息。

欧洲核心通胀以及德国和欧元区ZEW经济调查数据将于香港时间下午5点公布。这两项数据都表明经济学家对欧元区的预期有所改善。然而,正如最近欧洲选举前的调查所显示的那样,这是一个落后的指标。

作为避险交易,欧元兑澳元可能被抛售。随着对即将到来的法国大选的蔓延担忧,资金将乐于转移到亚洲或澳大利亚。

最近的数据显示,澳大利亚的商业信心指数转为负值,经济状况降至平均水平以下,暗示高利率继续给消费者带来压力。然而,该国的就业情况显示出改善,因此澳大利亚央行可能不会急于调整其货币政策。

NAB分析师称,”总体而言,澳洲央行的消息喜忧参半。”他们补充称:“我们预计澳大利亚央行将在一段时间内维持利率不变。”

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