欧洲央行降息担忧和美国消费者预期

欧元兑美元市场展望

欧元兑美元周一小幅下跌,从上周的技术阻力位1.06回落。欧元交易者正在等待周四欧洲央行的利率决定,而美元买家则期待周三美国消费者价格指数的最新通胀数据。

欧洲央行降息担忧和美国消费者预期

12月份泛欧投资者信心指数跌至-17.5的13个月低点,加剧了欧元多头的担忧。预计欧洲央行将在周四将其主要再融资操作利率和存款工具利率分别下调25个基点。与此同时,纽约联邦储备银行的一项调查显示,美国消费者的财务预期有所改善,但也提高了他们对未来通胀的预期,平均受访者预计,到明年11月,通胀将再次加速至3%。

美国CPI通胀和欧元/美元价格预测

美国交易时段的交易者将关注定于周三公布的美国消费者价格指数的最新数据,市场预测中值预计,周三美国CPI同比涨幅将升至2.7%,高于10月份的2.6%。

EUR/USD Daily chart

欧元兑美元日图

欧元兑美元日图显示中期走势偏空,该货币对仍低于其50日均线1.0703和200日均线1.0828。该货币对在11月中旬大幅下跌后,已进入盘整阶段。阻力位1.06-1.0650和支撑位1.0450是值得关注的关键水平。MACD指标开始略微转为正值,表明看跌势头正在消退。然而,总体趋势尚未出现令人信服的转变。如果突破1.06,且看涨势头不断增强,对买家来说将是至关重要的,而如果未能突破1.06,该货币对将容易进一步下行,与更广泛的看跌趋势一致。

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