差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

關注聯儲會否再快縮減

聯儲局今年首次議息會議於週三進行,維期兩日議息會議結果將於週四宣布。市場關心聯儲局如何應對美國持續通脹高企的問題和展望,從內容和言詞中發掘加息路線圖,評估今年的加息步伐和幅度。目前市場普遍認為,一月聯儲局會議維持利率不變,縮減購債資產計劃自上月宣告提高後,觀望這次會議是否再次提高縮減規模。若加快縮減規模將意味更快迎接未來加息週期來臨,以壓抑美國持續高企的通脹。

加元升勢有望持續

過去一星期,因應多位聯儲局官員及部份金融機構就加息步伐和升息幅度的評論使美元從94.6水平,回升至95.6。若聯儲局議息前,美國公佈的一月製造業和服務業PMI初值和諮商會消費者信心指數及週三公佈新屋銷售均增長表現強勁,有機會增加市場對聯儲局收緊貨幣政策的急切性預期,可能推高美元。聯儲局議息會議後,美國公佈第四季GDP,PCE價格指數,首次申領失業救濟人數和一月密歇根大學消費者信心指數初值。以上經濟數據亦會影響市場對下一次聯儲局議息對收緊貨幣政策步伐的評估。技術上,美元持續一星期的上升後,留意10天線95.42為短期支持。若保持該支持位之上,可望持續至96.27或96.56。若突破支持,則下望94.88或94.58。

 

週三是加拿大央行議息會議結果宣布,普遍認為加拿大央行仍然維持利率水平於0.25%不變,因應加拿大的通脹持續高企和房屋價格等問題有所緩和有關。但央行會否就經濟展望釋放鷹調,並為下次議息會議開始宣告加息而鋪路至為重要。若這次議息會議內容偏鷹調,加元升勢有望持續,美元兌加元目標看至1.23或1.22水平。相反,若美元兌加元調整,目標至1.28或1.29水平。

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