差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美元兌日圓繼續飆升,增加了乾預的可能性

美元兌日圓又回到了高點,並有可能進一步突破。

USDJPY – Weekly Chart

美元兌日圓-週圖

美元兌日圓匯率再次在2022年的高點151.70上方交易。 突破測試似乎迫在眉睫,可能為空頭回補漲幅打開大門。

美元兌日圓的飆升確實增加了日本央行幹預的風險。 然而,荷蘭合作銀行並不認為這是迫在眉睫的。

「雖然美元兌日圓突破152可能不會立即引發外匯幹預,但我們認為日本財務省很有可能採取行動阻止其升至155。」強勁的美國通膨數據和疲軟的日本經濟數據,將增加日本財務 省被迫採取行動的風險。 」

「假設日本央行將能夠在今年稍後宣布第二次升息,並考慮到聯準會將在2024年降息的預期,我們預計美元/日圓將在今年稍後在較低的水平上交易。 然而,我們已將1個月和3個月的預測分別從148和146上調至150和148。”

在聯準會發表強硬言論後,美元繼續對日圓施壓,日本央行也有可能升息的跡象。 上週,一份強勁的美國就業報告也引發了聯準會的鷹派言論,這繼續給日圓帶來壓力。

包括卡什卡利和巴爾金在內的聯準會官員對市場降息的時間表表示懷疑,因為就業市場仍然強勁。 週三晚間的通膨報告將是本週的關鍵事件。

在連續幾個月走低之後,通膨率年化將在上個月從3.2%上升至3.4%。 由於頑固的通膨和更強勁的勞動力市場,一些官員質疑立即降息的能力。

對於日圓,日本央行總裁植田和男錶示,在日本最近的年度加薪之後,通膨可能會加速。 市場參與者將此視為央行可能計劃再次升息的暗示。 結果,日本公債殖利率飆升,推高了日圓。 同時,日本財務大臣鈴木俊一警告稱,當局將盡一切努力阻止日圓進一步大幅貶值。

日本央行在2022年底進行了乾預,這標誌著該貨幣對的頂部,一直持續到2023年初。

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