差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美金/人民幣在美聯儲主席講話前的關鍵價位

美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾將於週三發表講話,人民幣/美元匯率接近 2022 年低點。

USDCNH Weekly Chart

USD/CNH週線圖

美元/離岸人民幣匯率交投於 7.21,高點位於 7.35 附近。目前的水平顯示出 2022 年末回撤的一些阻力。

隨著美國持續加息和中國經濟的刺激措施,美元兌人民幣繼續走強。中國央行最近下調貸款利率增強了美元的強勢。

由於中國經濟重新開放後沒有像預期那樣強勁反彈,美元受到支撐。另一個阻力是兩國之間的緊張關係,這減緩了對中國金融市場的投資。

週二,央行試圖通過將每日參考利率設定為遠高於預期來支持人民幣。這一舉措是在一位著名財經作家和他的同事因分享有關中國股票的“負面和有害信息”而被社交媒體平台停職的一天后發生的。

儘管經濟籠罩著一些陰雲,但人民幣目前處於七個月低點,但政府並未加大刺激力度。 MSCI 中國股市指數比 1 月份的高點低近 20%。

儘管經濟疲軟和有相反的鷹派評論,但美聯儲可能已接近加息週期的結束。這可能會增加流向中國股市和人民幣的資金。

中國人民銀行利用其“固定利率”策略將利率設定為比預期高出 111 點,這是自 11 月以來的最大溢價。還有其他可用的工具,例如降低外匯存款準備金率,同時增加做空人民幣的成本。據官方報紙《中國證券報》報導,隨著經濟的改善,人民幣面臨的壓力預計將會得到緩解。

分析師擔心政府將迴避採取更強有力的刺激措施,這會對股市造成壓力。 MSCI 中國指數連續六天下跌 7%後,週二反彈 2%。

週一,吳曉波和另外兩名作家因聲稱“攻擊和破壞”中國貨幣政策並損害股市而被禁止使用微博。吳曉波在社交媒體平台上擁有470萬粉絲。最近的帖子也被刪除了。

人民幣目前正接近2022年的低點,隨著美聯儲更加溫和的貨幣政策以及政府加大捍衛人民幣的力度,人民幣可能會復蘇。

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