差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美國經濟創40年來最高!今年GDP走勢會持續強勁嗎?

早前美國商務部報告顯示,美國2021年第四季度GDP年化增長率為 6.9% ,略高於市場普遍預期的5.6,已經連續第六個季度實現增長。 2021年美國全年經濟增長5.7%,超過了 2020 年的3.4% 。這也是1984年以來最高漲幅。

從數據上看,美國經濟去年強勁增長反映了消費者支出、非住宅固定投資、出口、住宅固定投資和私人庫存投資等全面的增長,並不是由單一板塊帶動。其中,消費需求持續保持強勁增長,企業需不斷回補庫存滿足上升的需求。

 

美國去年消費者支出年化增長率為 3.3%,高於第三季度的 2%。在第三季度大幅收縮25% 後,耐用品支出在第四季度增長 1.6%。服務業增長達4.7% ,其中醫療保健、娛樂和交通服務處於領先地位。

 

美聯儲的季度經濟預測顯示,2021年美國經濟將增長5.5%(實際值略高於估計值),2022年增速降至4%。隨著加息週期的開啟,美國經濟未來將步入更為溫和的擴張階段,進一步向潛在經濟增速水平回歸,通脹率預計將逐漸回落。大多數經濟學家認為,美國經濟2022年好運氣將佔上風,預計今年經濟將增長逾4%。

 

不過,風險因素依然不容小覷。通脹成為美國當前經濟增長主要的製約因素,以致於美聯儲不得不採取多次加息進行遏制。美國1月通脹達7.5%,創40年新高,消費者信心指數隨之跌至谷底。

 

正如高盛對美國經濟的前景就稍顯悲觀,近期再次下調了預測,將美國2022年GDP預期從之前的3.8%下調至3.4%,這反映出目前美國經濟面臨的阻力比想像中更多,包括財政刺激力度的減弱、變種病毒的持續擴散、遏制通貨膨脹的多輪加息政策對經濟的影響等,考慮這些因素的綜合作用下,回落到2020年的經濟增速水平也是不無可能。

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