差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美股下行風險逐漸顯現,反彈期會走向結束嗎?

美國8月Markit綜合PMI初值已出爐,公佈值為45,低於前值的47.7,其中製造業和服務業的PMI初值均低於預期,服務業更是有前值的47.3下跌至44.1。這一數據公佈後,市場普遍開始擔憂美國經濟會放緩,美股三大股指均收跌,在隨後的交易日中由於能源股提振才止跌。

早前由於美國第二季度財報季企業有較好的盈利表現,其中標準普爾500指數自6月中旬以來反彈了17%。不過,美股近來幾日發生了轉向,走勢一度陷入低迷,主要是受到市場上對於加息政策和經濟擔憂的影響。目前美股正在處於方向調整的關鍵位置,預計未來下行的風險還會不斷顯現,而上行的空間卻受限。sp500 chart-1

首先,雖然美國7月通脹數據相比6月9.1%有所下降,但是仍然高達8.5%,多名美國官員暗示會繼續通過大幅加息來降低通脹的立場,從7月美聯儲會議紀要中也反映出這一點。只是目前市場上對於加息50個基點還是75個基點存在不同觀點,值得注意的是鷹派的聲音近段時間有增加的趨勢,這對於美股來說形成了下行的壓力,企業的融資成本可能還將繼續上升,有望繼續支撐美元指數。

本周而言,投資者主要在靜待美聯儲主席鮑威爾於8月26日在傑克遜霍爾央行年會上的講話,尤其是外界會格外關注他對貨幣政策前景的看法,希望能夠找到下月美聯儲加息態度的指引,如果是維持當前的收緊政策,那麼美股接下來的走勢可能會較為負面,反之則可能提振美股。

另一方面,美國經濟數據並不理想,PMI數據顯示商業活動表現不佳,製造業和服務業均呈現繼續萎縮的態勢,由於出口市場的通脹嚴重製約了需求,令美國8月新出口訂單數量大跌,進一步加劇了其國內對經濟衰退的擔憂,有可能會制約美聯儲下一步的加息決定。受到持續加息的影響,美國7月新屋銷售環比大跌12.6%,大幅不及預期的下跌2.5%,銷售量已經萎縮至六年半以來的最低水平。

經濟不景氣對美股大市表現造成較大衝擊,北京時間8月25日晚間還會公佈美國第二季度實際GDP年化季率修正值,預計值為-0.8%,前值為-0.9%,如果連續兩季度呈現負值,可能會加劇市場對美國經濟下行的預測,將會對本周美股形成不利因素。另外,美國7月核心PCE物價指數年率將於本週五出爐,市場關注的是該數據會不會有所回落,如果低於預期很可能令市場上的鴿派觀點出現增加。

可以看出,當前美股下行壓力開始浮現,無論是市場上鷹派的加息預測、低迷的經濟數據,還是很有可能再次轉向的通脹數據,都可能對美股未來的走向形成壓力。由於暫時9月加息的方向還尚不明確,基本面上的重要信息仍會繼續主導短期的股市方向。

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